Football · England National League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Scunthorpe vs Worthing

Team pages: Scunthorpe · Worthing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Scunthorpe1.62

Worthing1.78

1X2

35% 24% 41%

Scunthorpe Draw Worthing

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Scunthorpe 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLLLL

Worthing 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Scunthorpe 1427 · Worthing 1522

	Scunthorpe	Draw	Worthing
Our model	35%	25%	41%
Market	35%	23%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Worthing (rating 1427 vs 1522).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Scunthorpe	Worthing
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X4.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +2’	2.60	4.00	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:30 +423’	2.46	3.78	2.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	44	17	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	34	23	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	38	27	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	30	24	29
5	Yeovil	16	8	4	4	35	20	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	32	25	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	24	24	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	26	19	25
10	Halifax	16	7	3	6	28	20	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	20	21	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
13	Kidderminster	16	5	6	5	17	16	21
14	Aldershot	16	6	3	7	19	19	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	18	26	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	19	25	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
19	Boston Utd	16	5	3	8	21	29	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	25	32	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	18	27	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	19	40	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	19	30	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	9	34	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Scunthorpe	Worthing
Barrow	0-3 L	2-2 D
Hartlepool	4-1 W	3-1 W
AFC Hornchurch	0-1 L	1-0 W
Sutton Utd	2-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Scunthorpe

LWLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Boston Utd England National League	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
27/10	Tamworth England National League	1-3	1-4	3	3	L
24/10	Woking England National League	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
10/10	AFC Fylde England National League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	0-3	5	7	L
26/09	Hartlepool England National League	2-1	4-1	3	4	W
19/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
12/09	Sutton Utd England National League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
05/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-1	0-2	6	6	L

Worthing

DWWWDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sutton Utd England National League	0-3	0-3	3	8	L
27/10	Southend England National League	0-2	3-3	5	2	D
24/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Solihull Moors England National League	3-0	5-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gateshead England National League	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
29/09	Yeovil England National League	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
26/09	Halifax England National League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/09	Barrow England National League	0-2	2-2	10	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Scunthorpe vs Worthing?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Worthing win (41%). Probabilities: Scunthorpe 35%, draw 24%, Worthing 41%.

How many goals are expected in Scunthorpe vs Worthing?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Scunthorpe 1.62 · Worthing 1.78), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Worthing?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.