Football · England National League · 28/08, 20:45
Prediction: Hartlepool vs Eastleigh
Team pages: Hartlepool · Eastleigh
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Hartlepool1.9
Eastleigh1.08
1X2
Hartlepool
Draw
Eastleigh
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hartlepool
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Eastleigh
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hartlepool
3–3–0
Eastleigh
(6 last)
- Hartlepool1-0Eastleigh
- Eastleigh0-2Hartlepool
- Eastleigh1-1Hartlepool
- Hartlepool0-0Eastleigh
- Eastleigh1-1Hartlepool
- Hartlepool3-1Eastleigh
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hartlepool 1529 · Eastleigh 1420
| Hartlepool | Draw | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartlepool (rating 1529 vs 1420).
- H2H favours Hartlepool: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hartlepool | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.3 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartlepool 3–3–0 Eastleigh
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England National League | Hartlepool | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Eastleigh |
| 22/11/25 England National League | Eastleigh | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Hartlepool |
| 08/03/25 England National League | Eastleigh | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Hartlepool |
| 16/11/24 England National League | Hartlepool | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Eastleigh |
| 23/03/24 England National League | Eastleigh | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Hartlepool |
| 07/10/23 England National League | Hartlepool | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Eastleigh |
Standings · England National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Harrogate Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Boreham Wood | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Hartlepool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Boston Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Eastleigh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Worthing | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Forest Green | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Yeovil | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | AFC Fylde | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | Aldershot | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Kidderminster | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Halifax | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| 17 | Gateshead | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Woking | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 19 | Scunthorpe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | Barrow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 20 | Wealdstone | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 23 | Altrincham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 | Solihull Moors | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hartlepool | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Forest Green | 2-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Scunthorpe | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Hartlepool (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hartlepool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Sutton Utd England National League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Aldershot England National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Barrow England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Boston Utd England National League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Southend England National League |
1-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Forest Green England National League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Boreham Wood England National League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 06/04 | Rochdale England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 31/03 | Wealdstone England National League |
0-5 | 0-7 | 3 | 1 | L |
Eastleigh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Kidderminster England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Gateshead England National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Scunthorpe England National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Tamworth England National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Altrincham England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | Yeovil England National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Woking England National League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/03 | Forest Green England National League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 24/03 | Sutton Utd England National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hartlepool vs Eastleigh?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartlepool win (55%). Probabilities: Hartlepool 55%, draw 24%, Eastleigh 20%.
How many goals are expected in Hartlepool vs Eastleigh?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Hartlepool 1.9 · Eastleigh 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Eastleigh?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.