Football · England National League · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Eastleigh vs Boston Utd

Team pages: Eastleigh · Boston Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Eastleigh1.73

Boston Utd1.47

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Eastleigh Draw Boston Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Eastleigh 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWLDLL

Boston Utd 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Eastleigh 3–1–0 Boston Utd (4 last)

Boston Utd1-2Eastleigh
Eastleigh2-0Boston Utd
Boston Utd1-2Eastleigh
Eastleigh1-1Boston Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastleigh 1485 · Boston Utd 1386

	Eastleigh	Draw	Boston Utd
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastleigh (rating 1485 vs 1386).
H2H favours Eastleigh: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastleigh	Boston Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	3.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.30 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.68
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	2.15	3.60	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +605’	2.30	3.68	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastleigh 3–1–0 Boston Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England National League	Boston Utd	1-2 HT 1-1	Eastleigh
23/08/25 England National League	Eastleigh	2-0 HT 0-0	Boston Utd
22/02/25 England National League	Boston Utd	1-2 HT 0-1	Eastleigh
26/10/24 England National League	Eastleigh	1-1 HT 0-1	Boston Utd

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	13	11	2	0	34	13	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	9	1	3	29	17	28
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	31	19	27
4	Yeovil	13	7	4	2	32	15	25
5	Worthing	13	7	3	3	27	18	24
6	Altrincham	13	8	0	5	20	19	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
8	Barrow	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	7	0	6	15	19	21
10	Halifax	13	6	2	5	22	15	20
11	Kidderminster	13	5	5	3	15	12	20
12	Aldershot	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	5	3	5	14	18	18
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23	20	17
15	Woking	13	4	3	6	20	20	15
16	Forest Green	12	4	3	5	19	22	15
17	Eastleigh	13	4	3	6	14	20	15
18	Tamworth	13	4	2	7	21	30	14
19	Wealdstone	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
20	Hartlepool	13	4	0	9	12	19	12
21	Boston Utd	13	3	3	7	15	23	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	3	1	8	15	21	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	2	1	10	13	35	7
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastleigh	Boston Utd
AFC Hornchurch	0-2 L	2-3 L
Woking	1-3 L	1-1 D
Southend	1-1 D	1-2 L
Boreham Wood	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eastleigh

WDLDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
03/10	Woking England National League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
30/09	Southend England National League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
19/09	Carlisle England National League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/09	Sutton Utd England National League	0-2	1-2	1	7	L
12/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
04/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
31/08	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
28/08	Hartlepool England National League	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

Boston Utd

LLDLDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Southend England National League	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
03/10	Yeovil England National League	0-4	0-6	7	5	L
29/09	Halifax England National League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
19/09	Forest Green England National League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
15/09	Woking England National League	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
12/09	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Tamworth England National League	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
31/08	AFC Hornchurch England National League	2-1	2-3	10	2	L
27/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	1-2	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eastleigh vs Boston Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Eastleigh win (43%). Probabilities: Eastleigh 43%, draw 25%, Boston Utd 32%.

How many goals are expected in Eastleigh vs Boston Utd?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Eastleigh 1.73 · Boston Utd 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Eastleigh vs Boston Utd?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.