Football · England National League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde

Team pages: Eastleigh · AFC Fylde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Eastleigh1.35

AFC Fylde1.86

1X2

27% 24% 49%

Eastleigh Draw AFC Fylde

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Eastleigh 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLLWLD

AFC Fylde 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Eastleigh 2–2–2 AFC Fylde (6 last)

AFC Fylde2-2Eastleigh
Eastleigh4-2AFC Fylde
Eastleigh1-2AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde1-2Eastleigh
Eastleigh2-2AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde3-1Eastleigh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastleigh 1454 · AFC Fylde 1558

	Eastleigh	Draw	AFC Fylde
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	28%	23%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Fylde (rating 1454 vs 1558).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastleigh	AFC Fylde
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.2	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.90

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.45
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.96 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +15’	3.30	3.90	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +420’	3.45	3.81	1.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastleigh 2–2–2 AFC Fylde

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/12/24 England National League	AFC Fylde	2-2 HT 1-0	Eastleigh
17/08/24 England National League	Eastleigh	4-2 HT 1-2	AFC Fylde
10/02/24 England National League	Eastleigh	1-2 HT 0-1	AFC Fylde
16/09/23 England National League	AFC Fylde	1-2 HT 0-1	Eastleigh
11/02/20 England National League	Eastleigh	2-2 HT 0-2	AFC Fylde
21/09/19 England National League	AFC Fylde	3-1 HT 1-0	Eastleigh

Standings · England National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	44	17	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	34	23	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	38	27	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	30	24	29
5	Yeovil	16	8	4	4	35	20	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	32	25	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	24	24	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	26	19	25
10	Halifax	16	7	3	6	28	20	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	20	21	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	25	24	21
13	Kidderminster	16	5	6	5	17	16	21
14	Aldershot	16	6	3	7	19	19	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	18	26	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	19	25	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	23	29	18
19	Boston Utd	16	5	3	8	21	29	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	25	32	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	18	27	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	19	40	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	19	30	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	9	34	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastleigh	AFC Fylde
Boston Utd	4-2 W	1-0 W
AFC Hornchurch	0-2 L	3-1 W
Southend	1-1 D	1-3 L
Harrogate Town	1-4 L	2-1 W
Carlisle	1-0 W	0-2 L
Boreham Wood	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Eastleigh (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eastleigh

DLWLDLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Barrow England National League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
28/10	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
24/10	Boston Utd England National League	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
10/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
03/10	Woking England National League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
30/09	Southend England National League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Harrogate Town England National League	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
19/09	Carlisle England National League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/09	Sutton Utd England National League	0-2	1-2	1	7	L
12/09	Boreham Wood England National League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D

AFC Fylde

WWLWLLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	AFC Hornchurch England National League	2-1	3-1	6	5	W
27/10	Hartlepool England National League	0-1	3-1	5	1	W
24/10	Boreham Wood England National League	0-3	0-4	1	3	L
10/10	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
03/10	Southend England National League	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
29/09	Carlisle England National League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
26/09	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
19/09	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
15/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Yeovil England National League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AFC Fylde win (49%). Probabilities: Eastleigh 27%, draw 24%, AFC Fylde 49%.

How many goals are expected in Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Eastleigh 1.35 · AFC Fylde 1.86), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.