Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 19/10, 16:00

Prediction: Fatih Karagumruk vs Keciorengucu

Team pages: Fatih Karagumruk · Keciorengucu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Fatih Karagumruk1.43

Keciorengucu1.27

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Fatih Karagumruk Draw Keciorengucu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fatih Karagumruk 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLDWDL

Keciorengucu 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWDDWD

Head-to-head

Fatih Karagumruk 3–3 Keciorengucu (6 last)

Fatih Karagumruk1-0Keciorengucu
Keciorengucu0-1Fatih Karagumruk
Keciorengucu3-0Fatih Karagumruk
Fatih Karagumruk0-2Keciorengucu
Keciorengucu2-3Fatih Karagumruk
Fatih Karagumruk1-2Keciorengucu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fatih Karagumruk 1532 · Keciorengucu 1572

	Fatih Karagumruk	Draw	Keciorengucu
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	40%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keciorengucu (rating 1532 vs 1572).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fatih Karagumruk	Keciorengucu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.34
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.52 ★
2	2.63 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.82

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +5’	2.35	3.25	2.63
17:19 +16’	2.25▼	3.25	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +7’	2.32	3.48	2.79
17:13 +23’	2.34▲	3.52▲	2.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fatih Karagumruk 3–0–3 Keciorengucu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Fatih Karagumruk	1-0 HT 1-0	Keciorengucu
22/12/24 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	0-1 HT 0-1	Fatih Karagumruk
12/07/20 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	3-0 HT 2-0	Fatih Karagumruk
22/12/19 Türkiye 1 Lig	Fatih Karagumruk	0-2 HT 0-0	Keciorengucu
29/04/17 Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	Keciorengucu	2-3 HT 0-1	Fatih Karagumruk
17/12/16 Türkiye 2 Lig Beyaz	Fatih Karagumruk	1-2 HT 1-2	Keciorengucu

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kayserispor	10	8	1	1	22	5	25
2	Bursaspor	10	7	1	2	20	9	22
3	76 Igdir Belediyespor	10	6	2	2	14	8	20
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
5	Mardin 1969	10	5	3	2	12	6	18
6	Keciorengucu	10	4	5	1	19	10	17
7	Sariyer	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
8	Antalyaspor	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
9	Bandirmaspor	10	3	5	2	15	6	14
10	Fatih Karagumruk	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sivasspor	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
12	Muglaspor	10	2	6	2	9	11	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	2	5	3	11	9	11
14	Manisa BBSK	10	2	4	4	15	16	10
15	Pendikspor	10	2	4	4	12	19	10
16	Esenler Erokspor	10	1	6	3	6	11	9
17	Umraniyespor	9	1	4	4	7	10	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	2	3	5	10	20	7
19	Istanbulspor	10	1	2	7	9	24	5
20	Boluspor	9	0	1	8	3	21	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fatih Karagumruk	Keciorengucu
Umraniyespor	2-1 W	2-2 D
76 Igdir Belediyespor	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fatih Karagumruk

LWWDDLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Mardin 1969 Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
11/10	Muglaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
19/09	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
13/09	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
06/09	Batman Petrolspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	3-4	8	4	L
02/09	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
21/08	Bursaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Keciorengucu

LWDDWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
09/10	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
19/09	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
05/09	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/09	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
28/08	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
23/08	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
08/08	Antalyaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	3-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fatih Karagumruk vs Keciorengucu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fatih Karagumruk win (40%). Probabilities: Fatih Karagumruk 40%, draw 28%, Keciorengucu 32%.

How many goals are expected in Fatih Karagumruk vs Keciorengucu?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Fatih Karagumruk 1.43 · Keciorengucu 1.27), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fatih Karagumruk vs Keciorengucu?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.