Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 25/10, 11:30

Prediction: Pendikspor vs Kayserispor

Team pages: Pendikspor · Kayserispor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Pendikspor1.2

Kayserispor1.96

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Pendikspor Draw Kayserispor

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pendikspor 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDDLLL

Kayserispor 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Pendikspor 0–2 Kayserispor (2 last)

Pendikspor1-2Kayserispor
Kayserispor2-0Pendikspor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pendikspor 1457 · Kayserispor 1574

	Pendikspor	Draw	Kayserispor
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	22%	25%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kayserispor (rating 1457 vs 1574).
H2H favours Kayserispor: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pendikspor	Kayserispor
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.60

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.21
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.76
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.76 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:27 +4’	4.10	3.60	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +41’	3.97	3.66	1.80
19:46 +41’	4.02▲	3.70▲	1.81▲
21:13 +15’	3.81▼	3.63▼	1.88▲
16:11 +14’	4.21▲	3.76▲	1.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pendikspor 0–0–2 Kayserispor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Pendikspor	1-2 HT 1-1	Kayserispor
10/12/23 Türkiye Super Lig	Kayserispor	2-0 HT 0-0	Pendikspor

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	24	7	26
2	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	22	9	25
3	76 Igdir Belediyespor	11	7	2	2	15	8	23
4	Keciorengucu	11	5	5	1	21	11	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	14	10	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	17	17	18
8	Sariyer	11	4	4	3	14	15	16
9	Muglaspor	11	3	6	2	13	14	15
10	Bandirmaspor	11	3	5	3	16	8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	13	10	14
12	Sivasspor	11	2	7	2	15	14	13
13	Fatih Karagumruk	11	3	4	4	14	15	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	10	13	12
15	Umraniyespor	10	2	4	4	9	10	10
16	Manisa BBSK	11	2	4	5	18	20	10
17	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	12	21	10
18	Vanspor FK	11	2	3	6	10	22	7
19	Istanbulspor	11	1	2	8	9	26	5
20	Boluspor	10	0	1	9	3	22	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pendikspor	Kayserispor
Bursaspor	0-2 L	1-2 L
Sivasspor	1-4 L	2-0 W
Antalyaspor	3-2 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kayserispor (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pendikspor

LWDLWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Bursaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
13/10	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
09/10	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-4	5	5	L
20/09	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
12/09	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
05/09	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
01/09	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
28/08	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Antalyaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
16/08	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	1-2	1-4	–	–	L

Kayserispor

WWLDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Batman Petrolspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
14/10	Antalyaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
10/10	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	3-2	6	8	W
20/09	Mardin 1969 Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
14/09	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	3-0	4-0	7	0	W
07/09	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	3-0	1	8	W
02/09	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
29/08	Bursaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
22/08	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pendikspor vs Kayserispor?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kayserispor win (54%). Probabilities: Pendikspor 22%, draw 24%, Kayserispor 54%.

How many goals are expected in Pendikspor vs Kayserispor?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Pendikspor 1.2 · Kayserispor 1.96), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Kayserispor?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.