Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Keciorengucu vs Bursaspor

Team pages: Keciorengucu · Bursaspor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Keciorengucu1.1

Bursaspor1.41

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Keciorengucu Draw Bursaspor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Keciorengucu 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDDWDW

Bursaspor 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Keciorengucu 3–3 Bursaspor (6 last)

Keciorengucu2-1Bursaspor
Bursaspor2-0Keciorengucu
Bursaspor0-3Keciorengucu
Keciorengucu0-1Bursaspor
Keciorengucu1-0Bursaspor
Bursaspor1-0Keciorengucu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Keciorengucu 1580 · Bursaspor 1579

	Keciorengucu	Draw	Bursaspor
Our model	28%	29%	43%
Market	29%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Keciorengucu	Bursaspor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	5.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.30

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.37 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.39
2	2.00 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.11

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +11’	3.20	3.30	2.00
22:47 +5’	3.00▼	3.25▼	2.10▲
02:23 +3’	3.10▲	3.30▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +20’	3.41	3.32	2.07
19:45 +47’	3.00▼	3.19▼	2.39▲
12:09 +12’	3.05▲	3.20▲	2.35▼
12:56 +27’	2.97▼	3.23▲	2.38▲
17:02 +30’	3.04▲	3.28▲	2.32▼
10:18 +2’	3.08▲	3.33▲	2.27▼
10:20 +61’	3.13▲	3.35▲	2.23▼
01:28 +58’	3.37▲	3.39▲	2.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Keciorengucu 3–0–3 Bursaspor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/22 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	2-1 HT 1-0	Bursaspor
01/11/21 Türkiye 1 Lig	Bursaspor	2-0 HT 2-0	Keciorengucu
09/05/21 Türkiye 1 Lig	Bursaspor	0-3 HT 0-2	Keciorengucu
02/01/21 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	0-1 HT 0-1	Bursaspor
20/06/20 Türkiye 1 Lig	Keciorengucu	1-0 HT 0-0	Bursaspor
23/11/19 Türkiye 1 Lig	Bursaspor	1-0 HT 1-0	Keciorengucu

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	24	7	26
2	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	22	9	25
3	76 Igdir Belediyespor	11	7	2	2	15	8	23
4	Keciorengucu	11	5	5	1	21	11	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	14	10	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	17	17	18
8	Sariyer	11	4	4	3	14	15	16
9	Muglaspor	11	3	6	2	13	14	15
10	Bandirmaspor	11	3	5	3	16	8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	13	10	14
12	Sivasspor	11	2	7	2	15	14	13
13	Fatih Karagumruk	11	3	4	4	14	15	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	10	13	12
15	Umraniyespor	10	2	4	4	9	10	10
16	Manisa BBSK	11	2	4	5	18	20	10
17	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	12	21	10
18	Vanspor FK	11	2	3	6	10	22	7
19	Istanbulspor	11	1	2	8	9	26	5
20	Boluspor	10	0	1	9	3	22	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Keciorengucu	Bursaspor
Fatih Karagumruk	2-1 W	1-2 L
76 Igdir Belediyespor	0-0 D	1-0 W
Pendikspor	4-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Keciorengucu (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Keciorengucu

WDDWWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
14/10	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
09/10	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
19/09	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
05/09	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/09	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
28/08	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
23/08	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	4-1	–	–	W

Bursaspor

WLWWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
15/10	Muglaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	3-0	1	4	W
11/10	Mardin 1969 Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-2	7	10	L
19/09	Batman Petrolspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
13/09	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	2-2	9	4	D
07/09	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
03/09	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	4-0	8	7	W
29/08	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
21/08	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Keciorengucu vs Bursaspor?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bursaspor win (43%). Probabilities: Keciorengucu 29%, draw 28%, Bursaspor 43%.

How many goals are expected in Keciorengucu vs Bursaspor?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Keciorengucu 1.1 · Bursaspor 1.41), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Keciorengucu vs Bursaspor?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.