Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 18/10, 18:00

Prediction: Istanbulspor vs Antalyaspor

Team pages: Istanbulspor · Antalyaspor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Istanbulspor1.42

Antalyaspor1.86

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Istanbulspor Draw Antalyaspor

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Istanbulspor 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLWLL

Antalyaspor 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Istanbulspor 0–2–2 Antalyaspor (4 last)

Antalyaspor2-2Istanbulspor
Istanbulspor1-2Antalyaspor
Istanbulspor3-3Antalyaspor
Antalyaspor2-1Istanbulspor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Istanbulspor 1443 · Antalyaspor 1492

	Istanbulspor	Draw	Antalyaspor
Our model	29%	25%	47%
Market	27%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Antalyaspor (rating 1443 vs 1492).
H2H favours Antalyaspor: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Istanbulspor	Antalyaspor
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	1.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.30

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.31
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.45
2	2.00 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.10 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +8’	3.20	3.30	2.00
21:25 +9’	3.25▲	3.30	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +9’	3.56	3.54	1.98
20:41 +54’	3.31▼	3.45▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Istanbulspor 0–2–2 Antalyaspor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Antalyaspor	2-2 HT 2-0	Istanbulspor
30/09/23 Türkiye Super Lig	Istanbulspor	1-2 HT 1-0	Antalyaspor
19/04/23 Türkiye Super Lig	Istanbulspor	3-3 HT 2-1	Antalyaspor
21/10/22 Türkiye Super Lig	Antalyaspor	2-1 HT 1-1	Istanbulspor

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kayserispor	10	8	1	1	22	5	25
2	Bursaspor	10	7	1	2	20	9	22
3	76 Igdir Belediyespor	10	6	2	2	14	8	20
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
5	Mardin 1969	10	5	3	2	12	6	18
6	Keciorengucu	10	4	5	1	19	10	17
7	Sariyer	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
8	Antalyaspor	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
9	Bandirmaspor	10	3	5	2	15	6	14
10	Fatih Karagumruk	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sivasspor	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
12	Muglaspor	10	2	6	2	9	11	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	2	5	3	11	9	11
14	Manisa BBSK	10	2	4	4	15	16	10
15	Pendikspor	10	2	4	4	12	19	10
16	Esenler Erokspor	10	1	6	3	6	11	9
17	Umraniyespor	9	1	4	4	7	10	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	2	3	5	10	20	7
19	Istanbulspor	10	1	2	7	9	24	5
20	Boluspor	9	0	1	8	3	21	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Istanbulspor	Antalyaspor
Kayserispor	0-4 L	0-4 L
Vanspor FK	2-3 L	3-0 W
Bandirmaspor	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Antalyaspor (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Istanbulspor

LDLDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Batman Petrolspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-2	2-4	8	1	L
10/10	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
20/09	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
14/09	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-3	0-4	1	0	L
07/09	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
03/09	Bursaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-4	1	7	L
29/08	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	2-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Antalyaspor

WLLLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-3	0-4	5	1	L
10/10	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
12/09	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
01/09	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
28/08	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
22/08	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
16/08	Mardin 1969 Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
08/08	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	4-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Istanbulspor vs Antalyaspor?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Antalyaspor win (46%). Probabilities: Istanbulspor 28%, draw 26%, Antalyaspor 46%.

How many goals are expected in Istanbulspor vs Antalyaspor?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Istanbulspor 1.42 · Antalyaspor 1.86), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Istanbulspor vs Antalyaspor?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.