Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 19/10, 19:00

Prediction: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969

Team pages: Esenler Erokspor · Mardin 1969

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

Esenler Erokspor1.15

Mardin 19690.75

1X2

46% 30% 24%

Esenler Erokspor Draw Mardin 1969

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Esenler Erokspor 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLDLDLWD

Mardin 1969 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Esenler Erokspor 1–1–0 Mardin 1969 (2 last)

Esenler Erokspor3-0Mardin 1969
Mardin 19691-1Esenler Erokspor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Esenler Erokspor 1463 · Mardin 1969 1575

	Esenler Erokspor	Draw	Mardin 1969
Our model	44%	33%	23%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mardin 1969 (rating 1463 vs 1575).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Esenler Erokspor	Mardin 1969
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.98
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.39
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.72 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +7’	1.91	3.30	3.50
14:38 +9’	1.90▼	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:15 +5’	1.98	3.39	3.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Esenler Erokspor 1–1–0 Mardin 1969

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/22 Türkiye 3.Lig Group 3	Esenler Erokspor	3-0 HT 1-0	Mardin 1969
13/10/21 Türkiye 3.Lig Group 3	Mardin 1969	1-1 HT 0-0	Esenler Erokspor

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kayserispor	10	8	1	1	22	5	25
2	Bursaspor	10	7	1	2	20	9	22
3	76 Igdir Belediyespor	10	6	2	2	14	8	20
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
5	Mardin 1969	10	5	3	2	12	6	18
6	Keciorengucu	10	4	5	1	19	10	17
7	Sariyer	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
8	Antalyaspor	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
9	Bandirmaspor	10	3	5	2	15	6	14
10	Fatih Karagumruk	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sivasspor	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
12	Muglaspor	10	2	6	2	9	11	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	2	5	3	11	9	11
14	Manisa BBSK	10	2	4	4	15	16	10
15	Pendikspor	10	2	4	4	12	19	10
16	Esenler Erokspor	10	1	6	3	6	11	9
17	Umraniyespor	9	1	4	4	7	10	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	2	3	5	10	20	7
19	Istanbulspor	10	1	2	7	9	24	5
20	Boluspor	9	0	1	8	3	21	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Esenler Erokspor	Mardin 1969
Fatih Karagumruk	0-2 L	1-0 W
Bursaspor	2-2 D	2-1 W
Kayserispor	0-3 L	0-1 L
Bodrum FK	0-0 D	1-0 W
76 Igdir Belediyespor	0-1 L	0-1 L
Umraniyespor	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sivasspor	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mardin 1969 (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Esenler Erokspor

DDDLDLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
10/10	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
13/09	Bursaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
07/09	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
03/09	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
30/08	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/08	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Mardin 1969

DWWDDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
11/10	Bursaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-1	2	10	W
20/09	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
13/09	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
07/09	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/09	Sivasspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	2-2	6	5	D
29/08	Vanspor FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	Antalyaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Esenler Erokspor win (46%). Probabilities: Esenler Erokspor 46%, draw 30%, Mardin 1969 24%.

How many goals are expected in Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?

The model expects 1.9 goals (Esenler Erokspor 1.15 · Mardin 1969 0.75), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.