Football · Türkiye 1 Lig · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Vanspor FK vs Umraniyespor

Team pages: Vanspor FK · Umraniyespor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Vanspor FK1.37

Umraniyespor1.17

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Vanspor FK Draw Umraniyespor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vanspor FK 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLDDLLW

Umraniyespor 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Vanspor FK 1–1 Umraniyespor (2 last)

Umraniyespor1-2Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK0-1Umraniyespor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vanspor FK 1454 · Umraniyespor 1446

	Vanspor FK	Draw	Umraniyespor
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vanspor FK	Umraniyespor
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.4	1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.22
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.43
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.09 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +8’	2.20	3.25	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +43’	2.20	3.39	3.06
17:15 +29’	2.22▲	3.43▲	3.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vanspor FK 1–0–1 Umraniyespor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Türkiye 1 Lig	Umraniyespor	1-2 HT 0-0	Vanspor FK
14/12/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Vanspor FK	0-1 HT 0-0	Umraniyespor

Standings · Türkiye 1 Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kayserispor	10	8	1	1	22	5	25
2	76 Igdir Belediyespor	10	6	2	2	14	8	20
3	Bursaspor	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
5	Keciorengucu	10	4	5	1	19	10	17
6	Mardin 1969	9	4	3	2	11	6	15
7	Sariyer	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
8	Antalyaspor	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
9	Bandirmaspor	10	3	5	2	15	6	14
10	Fatih Karagumruk	9	3	4	2	13	12	13
11	Sivasspor	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
12	Muglaspor	9	2	6	1	9	8	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	2	5	3	11	9	11
14	Pendikspor	10	2	4	4	12	19	10
15	Manisa BBSK	9	2	3	4	14	15	9
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	1	5	3	5	10	8
17	Umraniyespor	9	1	4	4	7	10	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	2	3	5	10	20	7
19	Istanbulspor	10	1	2	7	9	24	5
20	Boluspor	9	0	1	8	3	21	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vanspor FK	Umraniyespor
Pendikspor	2-1 W	0-1 L
Bandirmaspor	0-2 L	1-0 W
Antalyaspor	0-3 L	1-2 L
Keciorengucu	1-1 D	2-2 D
Muglaspor	2-2 D	0-1 L
Mardin 1969	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vanspor FK

LLWDLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
09/10	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
20/09	Antalyaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
12/09	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
06/09	Muglaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
02/09	Batman Petrolspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
29/08	Mardin 1969 Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
23/08	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
09/08	Kayserispor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Umraniyespor

DLDDLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
09/10	Sariyer Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
18/09	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Antalyaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
05/09	Pendikspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
01/09	Muglaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
28/08	Keciorengucu Türkiye 1 Lig	2-1	2-2	5	6	D
22/08	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Mardin 1969 Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vanspor FK vs Umraniyespor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vanspor FK win (41%). Probabilities: Vanspor FK 41%, draw 28%, Umraniyespor 31%.

How many goals are expected in Vanspor FK vs Umraniyespor?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Vanspor FK 1.37 · Umraniyespor 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vanspor FK vs Umraniyespor?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.