Football · New Zealand Central League · 11/07, 02:00
Prediction: Waterside Karori vs Petone FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Waterside Karori1.27
Petone FC1.79
1X2
Waterside Karori
Draw
Petone FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Waterside Karori
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Petone FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Waterside Karori
3–3
Petone FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Waterside Karori 1459 · Petone FC 1440
| Waterside Karori | Draw | Petone FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 25% | 48% |
| Market | 28% | 22% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Waterside Karori | Petone FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.4 | 0.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/22/44% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.8 | 1.9 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Waterside Karori 3–0–3 Petone FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Waterside Karori |
| 07/06/25 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Petone FC |
| 29/03/25 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Waterside Karori |
| 31/08/24 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Waterside Karori |
| 25/05/24 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Petone FC |
| 26/08/23 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Petone FC |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 11 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Waterside Karori | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 8 |
| 10 | FC Western | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Waterside Karori | Petone FC |
|---|---|---|
| Upper Hutt City | 0-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Island Bay United | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Napier City Rovers | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| Wellington Olympic | 0-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Western Suburbs | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Miramar Rangers | 0-6 L | 1-4 L |
| FC Western | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Waterside Karori (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Waterside Karori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Petone FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Waterside Karori vs Petone FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Petone FC win (49%). Probabilities: Waterside Karori 27%, draw 24%, Petone FC 49%.
How many goals are expected in Waterside Karori vs Petone FC?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Waterside Karori 1.27 · Petone FC 1.79), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Waterside Karori vs Petone FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.