Football · Brazil Serie B · 28/07, 00:30

Prediction: Atletico GO vs Operario PR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Atletico GO1.25

Operario PR0.86

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Atletico GO Draw Operario PR

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico GO 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDDWLWDW

Operario PR 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Atletico GO 1–2–2 Operario PR (5 last)

Operario PR1-0Atletico GO
Atletico GO0-0Operario PR
Operario PR3-0Atletico GO

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico GO 1512 · Operario PR 1572

	Atletico GO	Draw	Operario PR
Our model	44%	32%	24%
Market	45%	30%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Operario PR (rating 1512 vs 1572).
H2H favours Operario PR: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico GO	Operario PR
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.21 ★
2	3.10 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.79

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +13’	2.30	3.00	3.10
04:26 +6’	2.15▼	3.00	3.40▲
05:22 +5’	2.10▼	3.10▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:36	2.03	3.17	3.85
03:30 +1’	2.06▲	3.22▲	3.83▼
04:32	2.07▲	3.21▼	3.82▼
05:26 +1’	2.10▲	3.18▼	3.76▼
12:40 +2’	2.08▼	3.21▲	3.79▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico GO 1–2–2 Operario PR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico GO
15/11/25 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	0-0 HT 0-0	Operario PR
23/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	3-0 HT 0-0	Atletico GO
02/11/19 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico GO
31/07/19 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	4-2 HT 0-2	Operario PR

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	19	11	6	2	23	12	39
2	Operario PR	19	10	5	4	27	22	35
3	Vila Nova	19	10	4	5	27	22	34
4	EC Juventude	19	9	5	5	21	12	32
5	Fortaleza	19	9	4	6	22	19	31
6	Gremio Novorizontino	19	8	6	5	28	18	30
7	Goias	19	8	5	6	21	25	29
8	Atletico GO	19	7	7	5	20	19	28
9	Sport Recife	19	6	10	3	24	18	28
10	Sao Bernardo SP	19	7	6	6	25	19	27
11	Athletic Club MG	19	6	9	4	18	17	27
12	CRB	19	7	5	7	29	32	26
13	Nautico	19	7	3	9	24	24	24
14	Botafogo SP	19	6	6	7	24	20	24
15	Cuiaba	19	5	9	5	14	14	24
16	Londrina	19	5	5	9	26	27	20
17	Avai	19	5	5	9	21	26	20
18	Ceara	19	4	7	8	16	22	19
19	Ponte Preta	19	2	2	15	14	38	8
20	America MG	19	1	5	13	13	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico GO	Operario PR
Athletic Club MG	0-0 D	1-0 W
Gremio Novorizontino	0-3 L	2-1 W
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	3-2 W
Sport Recife	1-1 D	2-2 D
America MG	2-1 W	1-0 W
Goias	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Operario PR (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico GO

LDWDDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
18/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
12/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
04/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
28/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
19/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/06	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-3	3-3	13	7	D
09/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	1	W
30/05	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
24/05	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	2	L

Operario PR

DWWLWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
18/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
12/07	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
08/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
27/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
21/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	3-0	3-0	0	3	W
15/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
06/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
31/05	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	2	10	W
25/05	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico GO vs Operario PR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico GO win (44%). Probabilities: Atletico GO 44%, draw 31%, Operario PR 25%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico GO vs Operario PR?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Atletico GO 1.25 · Operario PR 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico GO vs Operario PR?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.