Football · Brazil Serie B · 28/07, 00:30

Prediction: Sport Recife vs Cuiaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Sport Recife1.28

Cuiaba0.73

1X2

49% 31% 20%

Sport Recife Draw Cuiaba

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Recife 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLLDDD

Cuiaba 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWDLL

Head-to-head

Sport Recife 1–3–1 Cuiaba (5 last)

Cuiaba0-0Sport Recife
Cuiaba1-0Sport Recife
Sport Recife0-0Cuiaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Recife 1491 · Cuiaba 1493

	Sport Recife	Draw	Cuiaba
Our model	48%	32%	20%
Market	49%	30%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Recife	Cuiaba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.92
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.32 ★
2	4.10 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +13’	1.95	3.10	4.10
03:29 +1’	1.75▼	3.20▲	5.00▲
05:26 +1’	1.80▲	3.20	5.00
11:31 +7’	1.90▲	3.10▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:35	1.89	3.13	4.51
03:30 +1’	1.91▲	3.16▲	4.58▲
04:31 +1’	1.91	3.17▲	4.58
15:40	1.90▼	3.18▲	4.58
10:53	1.87▼	3.27▲	4.58
12:04	1.89▲	3.26▼	4.48▼
18:36	1.92▲	3.32▲	4.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Recife 1–3–1 Cuiaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	0-0 HT 0-0	Sport Recife
15/10/21 Brazil Serie A	Cuiaba	1-0 HT 0-0	Sport Recife
28/06/21 Brazil Serie A	Sport Recife	0-0 HT 0-0	Cuiaba
15/10/19 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	2-0 HT 1-0	Cuiaba
16/07/19 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	1-1 HT 0-0	Sport Recife

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	19	11	6	2	23	12	39
2	Operario PR	19	10	5	4	27	22	35
3	Vila Nova	19	10	4	5	27	22	34
4	EC Juventude	19	9	5	5	21	12	32
5	Fortaleza	19	9	4	6	22	19	31
6	Gremio Novorizontino	19	8	6	5	28	18	30
7	Goias	19	8	5	6	21	25	29
8	Atletico GO	19	7	7	5	20	19	28
9	Sport Recife	19	6	10	3	24	18	28
10	Sao Bernardo SP	19	7	6	6	25	19	27
11	Athletic Club MG	19	6	9	4	18	17	27
12	CRB	19	7	5	7	29	32	26
13	Nautico	19	7	3	9	24	24	24
14	Botafogo SP	19	6	6	7	24	20	24
15	Cuiaba	19	5	9	5	14	14	24
16	Londrina	19	5	5	9	26	27	20
17	Avai	19	5	5	9	21	26	20
18	Ceara	19	4	7	8	16	22	19
19	Ponte Preta	19	2	2	15	14	38	8
20	America MG	19	1	5	13	13	31	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Recife	Cuiaba
Atletico GO	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sao Bernardo SP	0-0 D	2-2 D
Nautico	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Recife (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sport Recife

LWDDDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	7	8	D
11/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	3-3	7	7	D
04/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
28/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
19/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
14/06	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
11/06	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
31/05	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
28/05	Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste	0-1	0-2	4	6	L

Cuiaba

LWWWLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
18/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
12/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	2-2	2-2	7	4	D
03/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
26/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-2	9	7	D
21/06	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	13	2	L
14/06	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
10/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
01/06	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
23/05	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Recife win (49%). Probabilities: Sport Recife 49%, draw 31%, Cuiaba 20%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?

The model expects 2 goals (Sport Recife 1.28 · Cuiaba 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Cuiaba?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.