Football · Brazil Serie B · 29/07, 00:30

Prediction: EC Juventude vs Avai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

EC Juventude1.74

Avai0.75

1X2

60% 26% 15%

EC Juventude Draw Avai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

EC Juventude 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDWWL

Avai 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLWDW

Head-to-head

EC Juventude 3–1–2 Avai (6 last)

Avai2-0EC Juventude
Avai0-2EC Juventude
EC Juventude3-2Avai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Juventude 1537 · Avai 1486

	EC Juventude	Draw	Avai
Our model	60%	25%	15%
Market	60%	26%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Juventude (rating 1537 vs 1486).
H2H favours EC Juventude: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Juventude	Avai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.70
2	6.00 → 6.50▲	Pinn 6.71 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +13’	1.57	3.60	6.00
05:26 +1’	1.57	3.60	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:30 +2’	1.53	3.72	6.48
04:33	1.55▲	3.77▲	6.63▲
05:27	1.56▲	3.73▼	6.51▼
11:38	1.56▲	3.73	6.44▼
14:42	1.55▼	3.70▼	6.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Juventude 3–1–2 Avai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-0 HT 1-0	EC Juventude
25/09/23 Brazil Serie B	Avai	0-2 HT 0-2	EC Juventude
03/06/23 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	3-2 HT 2-1	Avai
03/09/22 Brazil Serie A	EC Juventude	1-1 HT 0-0	Avai
15/05/22 Brazil Serie A	Avai	1-2 HT 1-1	EC Juventude
19/01/21 Brazil Serie B	Avai	5-2 HT 4-2	EC Juventude

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	19	11	6	2	23	12	39
2	Operario PR	19	10	5	4	27	22	35
3	Vila Nova	19	10	4	5	27	22	34
4	EC Juventude	19	9	5	5	21	12	32
5	Fortaleza	19	9	4	6	22	19	31
6	Gremio Novorizontino	19	8	6	5	28	18	30
7	Goias	19	8	5	6	21	25	29
8	Atletico GO	19	7	7	5	20	19	28
9	Sport Recife	19	6	10	3	24	18	28
10	Sao Bernardo SP	19	7	6	6	25	19	27
11	Athletic Club MG	19	6	9	4	18	17	27
12	CRB	19	7	5	7	29	32	26
13	Nautico	19	7	3	9	24	24	24
14	Botafogo SP	19	6	6	7	24	20	24
15	Cuiaba	19	5	9	5	14	14	24
16	Londrina	19	5	5	9	26	27	20
17	Avai	19	5	5	9	21	26	20
18	Ceara	19	4	7	8	16	22	19
19	Ponte Preta	19	2	2	15	14	38	8
20	America MG	19	1	5	13	13	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Juventude	Avai
Botafogo SP	2-4 L	1-3 L
Cuiaba	2-0 W	1-0 W
Nautico	0-0 D	2-0 W
Ceara	2-0 W	1-2 L
Sao Bernardo SP	1-0 W	1-1 D
America MG	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: EC Juventude (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

EC Juventude

LWLWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-4	9	4	L
18/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
11/07	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
28/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
21/06	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
14/06	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
06/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
30/05	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
24/05	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	9	5	L

Avai

WLLLWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
12/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
07/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
28/06	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
21/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
16/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
11/06	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	0	5	L
07/06	Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	0-1	0-3	4	6	L
04/06	Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	3-0	3-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Juventude vs Avai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Juventude win (60%). Probabilities: EC Juventude 60%, draw 26%, Avai 15%.

How many goals are expected in EC Juventude vs Avai?

The model expects 2.48 goals (EC Juventude 1.74 · Avai 0.75), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Juventude vs Avai?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.