Football · Brazil Serie B · 29/07, 00:30

Prediction: Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Ponte Preta0.89

Athletic Club MG1.38

1X2

23% 30% 47%

Ponte Preta Draw Athletic Club MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ponte Preta 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLLL

Athletic Club MG 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWLDDW

Head-to-head

Ponte Preta 0–1 Athletic Club MG (1 last)

Athletic Club MG2-1Ponte Preta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ponte Preta 1389 · Athletic Club MG 1507

	Ponte Preta	Draw	Athletic Club MG
Our model	23%	30%	47%
Market	23%	30%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Club MG (rating 1389 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponte Preta	Athletic Club MG
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.4	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.10

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17 ★
2	1.90 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.01

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +13’	4.20	3.10	1.90
02:28 +8’	3.60▼	3.00▼	2.10▲
05:25 +2’	3.75▲	3.10▲	2.10
17:05 +6’	4.10▲	3.10	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:34	3.44	3.34	2.10
02:36	3.63▲	3.34	2.08▼
04:33	3.62▼	3.25▼	2.12▲
14:42	3.80▲	3.31▲	2.04▼
15:41	3.75▼	3.28▼	2.06▲
17:11	4.09▲	3.17▼	2.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponte Preta 0–0–1 Athletic Club MG

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	2-1 HT 2-1	Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	19	11	6	2	23	12	39
2	Operario PR	19	10	5	4	27	22	35
3	Vila Nova	19	10	4	5	27	22	34
4	EC Juventude	19	9	5	5	21	12	32
5	Fortaleza	19	9	4	6	22	19	31
6	Gremio Novorizontino	19	8	6	5	28	18	30
7	Goias	19	8	5	6	21	25	29
8	Atletico GO	19	7	7	5	20	19	28
9	Sport Recife	19	6	10	3	24	18	28
10	Sao Bernardo SP	19	7	6	6	25	19	27
11	Athletic Club MG	19	6	9	4	18	17	27
12	CRB	19	7	5	7	29	32	26
13	Nautico	19	7	3	9	24	24	24
14	Botafogo SP	19	6	6	7	24	20	24
15	Cuiaba	19	5	9	5	14	14	24
16	Londrina	19	5	5	9	26	27	20
17	Avai	19	5	5	9	21	26	20
18	Ceara	19	4	7	8	16	22	19
19	Ponte Preta	19	2	2	15	14	38	8
20	America MG	19	1	5	13	13	31	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponte Preta	Athletic Club MG
Operario PR	2-3 L	0-1 L
Goias	1-2 L	1-1 D
Fortaleza	0-2 L	1-0 W
Atletico GO	0-2 L	0-0 D
Botafogo SP	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Club MG (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponte Preta

LDLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
18/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
09/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
03/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
28/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
23/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
14/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
10/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
02/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
24/05	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-4	5	3	L

Athletic Club MG

WWDDLWLDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
14/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
08/07	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/06	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/06	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
14/06	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
11/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/05	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
26/05	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Club MG win (47%). Probabilities: Ponte Preta 23%, draw 30%, Athletic Club MG 47%.

How many goals are expected in Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club MG?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Ponte Preta 0.89 · Athletic Club MG 1.38), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club MG?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.