Football · Brazil Serie B · 26/07, 23:30

Prediction: America MG vs Goias

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

America MG1

Goias1.35

1X2

26% 30% 44%

America MG Draw Goias

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLDDL

Goias 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWWDWD

Head-to-head

America MG 1–1–4 Goias (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Goias (rating 1422 vs 1530).
H2H favours Goias: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	Goias
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.81

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:32

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.54 → 2.47▼	Pinn 2.47
X	3.07 → 3.35▲	Pinn 3.35
2	2.89 → 2.84▼	Pinn 2.84

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +1’	2.54	3.07	2.89
03:39	2.51▼	3.25▲	2.87▼
04:32	2.47▼	3.35▲	2.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 1–1–4 Goias

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Brazil Serie B	Goias	3-1 HT 2-0	America MG
23/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Goias	1-0 HT 0-0	America MG
21/04/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-0 HT 1-0	Goias
18/10/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-2 HT 1-2	Goias
02/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Goias	2-1 HT 0-0	America MG
06/12/23 Brazil Serie A	Goias	1-0 HT 1-0	America MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	19	11	6	2	23	12	39
2	Operario PR	19	10	5	4	27	22	35
3	Vila Nova	19	10	4	5	27	22	34
4	EC Juventude	18	9	5	4	19	8	32
5	Fortaleza	19	9	4	6	22	19	31
6	Gremio Novorizontino	19	8	6	5	28	18	30
7	Goias	19	8	5	6	21	25	29
8	Sport Recife	19	6	10	3	24	18	28
9	Sao Bernardo SP	18	7	6	5	24	17	27
10	CRB	19	7	5	7	29	32	26
11	Atletico GO	18	6	7	5	19	19	25
12	Cuiaba	18	5	9	4	14	13	24
13	Athletic Club MG	18	5	9	4	16	16	24
14	Nautico	18	6	3	9	22	23	21
15	Botafogo SP	18	5	6	7	20	18	21
16	Londrina	18	5	5	8	25	25	20
17	Avai	19	5	5	9	21	26	20
18	Ceara	19	4	7	8	16	22	19
19	Ponte Preta	19	2	2	15	14	38	8
20	America MG	19	1	5	13	13	31	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	Goias
Avai	1-2 L	2-0 W
Ceara	1-1 D	2-0 W
Operario PR	0-1 L	0-3 L
Atletico GO	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Goias (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

LLLWLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
18/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
03/07	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
24/06	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
17/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	3	W
09/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
30/05	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
24/05	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	4	6	L

Goias

WDLDLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
18/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
13/07	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-2	1	3	D
05/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
28/06	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
21/06	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-3	10	3	L
14/06	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
11/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-4	9	4	L
30/05	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
25/05	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs Goias?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Goias win (44%). Probabilities: America MG 26%, draw 30%, Goias 44%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs Goias?

The model expects 2.34 goals (America MG 1 · Goias 1.35), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs Goias?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.