Football · Brazil Serie B · 28/07, 00:30

Prediction: CRB vs Vila Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

CRB1.76

Vila Nova1.15

1X2

50% 27% 23%

CRB Draw Vila Nova

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CRB 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWLDWW

Vila Nova 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWLLW

Head-to-head

CRB 3–1–2 Vila Nova (6 last)

Vila Nova2-2CRB
CRB2-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova2-0CRB

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CRB 1517 · Vila Nova 1516

	CRB	Draw	Vila Nova
Our model	51%	26%	24%
Market	49%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CRB: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CRB	Vila Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.93
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.38 ★
2	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +14’	1.85	3.30	4.10
05:25 +2’	1.95▲	3.30	4.00▼
22:07 +1’	1.90▼	3.30	4.20▲
22:48 +1’	1.95▲	3.30	4.00▼
00:27 +4’	1.90▼	3.30	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:32	1.95	3.32	3.92
02:43 +1’	1.93▼	3.39▲	4.08▲
05:28	1.96▲	3.36▼	4.00▼
14:40 +1’	1.93▼	3.39▲	4.11▲
20:46 +1’	1.93▲	3.38▼	4.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CRB 3–1–2 Vila Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-2 HT 0-1	CRB
15/11/25 Brazil Serie B	CRB	2-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
23/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-0 HT 1-0	CRB
05/09/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	1-0 HT 0-0	CRB
18/05/24 Brazil Serie B	CRB	1-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
03/09/23 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	0-1 HT 0-0	CRB

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Criciuma	19	11	6	2	23	12	39
2	Operario PR	19	10	5	4	27	22	35
3	Vila Nova	19	10	4	5	27	22	34
4	EC Juventude	19	9	5	5	21	12	32
5	Fortaleza	19	9	4	6	22	19	31
6	Gremio Novorizontino	19	8	6	5	28	18	30
7	Goias	19	8	5	6	21	25	29
8	Atletico GO	19	7	7	5	20	19	28
9	Sport Recife	19	6	10	3	24	18	28
10	Sao Bernardo SP	19	7	6	6	25	19	27
11	Athletic Club MG	19	6	9	4	18	17	27
12	CRB	19	7	5	7	29	32	26
13	Nautico	19	7	3	9	24	24	24
14	Botafogo SP	19	6	6	7	24	20	24
15	Cuiaba	19	5	9	5	14	14	24
16	Londrina	19	5	5	9	26	27	20
17	Avai	19	5	5	9	21	26	20
18	Ceara	19	4	7	8	16	22	19
19	Ponte Preta	19	2	2	15	14	38	8
20	America MG	19	1	5	13	13	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CRB	Vila Nova
Nautico	2-1 W	4-3 W
Londrina	0-5 L	1-0 W
Botafogo SP	1-0 W	1-0 W
Fortaleza	1-1 D	2-1 W
Sao Bernardo SP	2-3 L	2-1 W
Cuiaba	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CRB

WLLDDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
17/07	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
13/07	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
04/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-5	11	4	L
01/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/06	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
13/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	3-0	3-3	3	7	D
07/06	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	8	7	L
01/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-2	4-2	12	3	W

Vila Nova

WWWLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
11/07	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
07/07	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
21/06	Nautico Brazil Serie B	4-1	4-3	2	4	W
14/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
09/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
31/05	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	9	12	W
24/05	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CRB vs Vila Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CRB win (50%). Probabilities: CRB 50%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 23%.

How many goals are expected in CRB vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.91 goals (CRB 1.76 · Vila Nova 1.15), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CRB vs Vila Nova?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.