Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 05/09, 13:30

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs JK Trans Narva

Team pages: FC Kuressaare · JK Trans Narva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

FC Kuressaare1.33

JK Trans Narva1.21

1X2

39% 28% 33%

FC Kuressaare Draw JK Trans Narva

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLWWLD

JK Trans Narva 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLDLL

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 2–3–1 JK Trans Narva (6 last)

FC Kuressaare0-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-2FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare2-2JK Trans Narva
FC Kuressaare0-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva3-2FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare2-1JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1514 · JK Trans Narva 1479

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	JK Trans Narva
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Kuressaare: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	JK Trans Narva
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	0.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +2’	2.25	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 2–3–1 JK Trans Narva

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
18/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Kuressaare
21/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Kuressaare	2-2 HT 2-1	JK Trans Narva
20/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
05/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	3-2 HT 2-2	FC Kuressaare
27/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	24	18	5	1	64	20	59
2	JK Nomme Kalju	25	13	5	7	45	22	44
3	Paide Linnameeskond	24	12	6	6	40	31	42
4	FC Flora Tallinn	24	14	0	10	46	30	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	23	12	2	9	29	32	38
6	Harju JK Laagri	25	10	1	14	36	41	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	24	8	4	12	33	46	28
8	JK Nomme United	25	8	1	16	42	60	25
9	FC Kuressaare	25	7	4	14	27	41	25
10	JK Trans Narva	25	5	2	18	18	57	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	JK Trans Narva
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 D	3-1 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 L	0-2 L
Harju JK Laagri	3-2 W	0-3 L
Paide Linnameeskond	0-1 L	1-1 D
JK Nomme Kalju	0-0 D	0-2 L
JK Nomme United	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kuressaare

DLLLDLWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
07/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-2	7	6	W
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

JK Trans Narva

DLLLWWLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
21/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
16/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs JK Trans Narva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Kuressaare win (39%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 39%, draw 28%, JK Trans Narva 33%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs JK Trans Narva?

The model expects 2.55 goals (FC Kuressaare 1.33 · JK Trans Narva 1.21), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs JK Trans Narva?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.