Prediction: Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)
Expected goals: 4.26 (Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1.13 · Independiente del Valle (W) 3.13). The model gives 6% home, 10% draw, 85% away. Under 4.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-3.
On recent form, Deportivo Ibarra (W) is 5-1-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Independiente del Valle (W) 9-1-0 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Deportivo Ibarra (W) and 6 for Independiente del Valle (W).
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | Draw | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 2% | 6% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (W) (rating 1512 vs 1625).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.7 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/17/33% | 71/29/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 0–0–6 Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 14/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 0-3 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 30/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-0 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 10/05/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 21/06/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 12/05/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 64 | 5 | 37 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 34 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 27 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 16 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 10 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | EL Nacional (W) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 3 |
| 11 | Quito FC (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Quito (W) | 1-6 L | 2-1 W |
| CD Espuce (W) | 2-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Macara (W) | 3-2 W | 6-0 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 4-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Emelec (W) | 1-1 D | 13-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Ibarra (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-4 | 0-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
5-0 | 13-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Deportivo Ibarra (W) 6%, draw 10%, Independiente del Valle (W) 85%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
The model expects 4.26 goals (Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1.13 · Independiente del Valle (W) 3.13), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.