Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 26/07, 03:00

Prediction: Atletico Morelia vs Club Atletico La Paz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Atletico Morelia1.64

Club Atletico La Paz0.97

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Atletico Morelia Draw Club Atletico La Paz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Morelia 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLLWD

Club Atletico La Paz 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLDDLL

Head-to-head

Atletico Morelia 4–1–1 Club Atletico La Paz (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Morelia 1493 · Club Atletico La Paz 1496

	Atletico Morelia	Draw	Club Atletico La Paz
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Morelia: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Morelia	Club Atletico La Paz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.76
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:08 +6’	1.75	3.60	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:15	1.75	3.72	4.16
23:11	1.76▲	3.77▲	4.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Morelia 4–1–1 Club Atletico La Paz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	1-0 HT 0-0	Club Atletico La Paz
20/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	3-0 HT 3-0	Atletico Morelia
16/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	4-1 HT 2-1	Club Atletico La Paz
28/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
10/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Morelia
11/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico Morelia	2-0 HT 1-0	Club Atletico La Paz

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oaxaca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Morelia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cancun FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mineros de Zacatecas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tapatio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Correcaminos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Atletico La Paz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dorados	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jaiba Brava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Universidad Guadalajara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Piratas Veracruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tepatitlan FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tlaxcala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Venados FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Morelia	Club Atletico La Paz
Jaiba Brava	0-1 L	1-2 L
Tlaxcala FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Universidad Guadalajara	0-2 L	3-0 W
Irapuato	2-0 W	1-3 L
Tepatitlan FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Atlante	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico La Paz (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Morelia

LWLWLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Cruz Azul America Friendlies	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
26/04	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	12	4	W
23/04	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
20/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/04	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
05/04	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
29/03	Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	6	8	W
23/03	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/03	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	3-2	3	9	W
08/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-2	4	8	L

Club Atletico La Paz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	7	9	L
23/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
18/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
11/04	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
04/04	Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
28/03	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
21/03	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	5	6	W
15/03	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
08/03	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
05/03	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Morelia vs Club Atletico La Paz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Morelia win (52%). Probabilities: Atletico Morelia 52%, draw 26%, Club Atletico La Paz 22%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Atletico Morelia 1.64 · Club Atletico La Paz 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Morelia vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.