Football · Panama LPF · 20/09, 01:15

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Sporting San Miguelito

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · Sporting San Miguelito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.19

Sporting San Miguelito1.09

1X2

37% 30% 33%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw Sporting San Miguelito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDDLWLLD

Sporting San Miguelito 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWLWDL

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1–3–2 Sporting San Miguelito (6 last)

Sporting San Miguelito1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera1-1Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito2-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera4-0Sporting San Miguelito
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1475 · Sporting San Miguelito 1487

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	Sporting San Miguelito
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sporting San Miguelito: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Sporting San Miguelito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.00

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.38▲	Bet365 2.38
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	3.10 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:44 +7’	2.10	3.10	3.10
06:57 +10’	2.38▲	3.00▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1–3–2 Sporting San Miguelito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	1-1 HT 1-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
12/11/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	1-1 HT 0-1	Sporting San Miguelito
08/09/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	2-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
09/03/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	4-0 HT 2-0	Sporting San Miguelito
03/09/24 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting San Miguelito
05/03/24 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	9	5	2	2	19	12	17
2	Veraguas CD	8	3	4	1	13	12	13
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
4	CD Universitario	8	1	4	3	7	9	7
5	Herrera FC	8	1	2	5	7	16	5
6	Union Cocle	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Sporting San Miguelito
Plaza Amador	2-2 D	0-2 L
UMECIT	0-2 L	1-0 W
Tauro FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
San Francisco FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
CD Universitario	2-2 D	1-1 D
Herrera FC	0-0 D	3-1 W
Alianza FC Panama	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting San Miguelito (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

LDDDDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
02/05	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L

Sporting San Miguelito

WLDLDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
06/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
16/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
10/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
28/07	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
03/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-3	1	0	L
26/04	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Sporting San Miguelito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente de la Chorrera win (37%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 37%, draw 30%, Sporting San Miguelito 33%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model expects 2.28 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.19 · Sporting San Miguelito 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.