Football · Panama LPF · 29/09, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza FC Panama vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Team pages: Alianza FC Panama · CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Alianza FC Panama1.3

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.2

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Alianza FC Panama Draw CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Panama 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDLWDDLD

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Alianza FC Panama 2–3–1 CA Independiente de la Chorrera (6 last)

Alianza FC Panama2-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Alianza FC Panama1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-2Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Alianza FC Panama1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera5-1Alianza FC Panama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Panama 1490 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1480

	Alianza FC Panama	Draw	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza FC Panama: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Panama	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.11
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.04 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:17 +4’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +15’	2.26	3.14	3.03
20:34 +37’	2.26	3.11▼	3.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Panama 2–3–1 CA Independiente de la Chorrera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-2 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
16/03/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
31/08/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-2 HT 2-2	Alianza FC Panama
28/02/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-1 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
09/09/24 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
10/03/24 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	5-1 HT 2-0	Alianza FC Panama

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	10	6	2	2	22	13	20
2	Veraguas CD	9	3	5	1	14	13	14
3	CD Universitario	10	2	5	3	9	10	11
4	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	9	2	4	3	14	14	10
5	Union Cocle	9	1	2	6	6	16	5
6	Herrera FC	10	1	2	7	8	24	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC Panama	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CD Universitario	0-0 D	2-2 D
Veraguas CD	1-2 L	1-1 D
San Francisco FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Union Cocle	2-2 D	3-0 W
Tauro FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Plaza Amador	2-4 L	2-2 D
Sporting San Miguelito	0-0 D	4-3 W
UMECIT	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Independiente de la Chorrera (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC Panama

DDWDLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
07/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
25/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
17/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-3	2-4	5	6	L
10/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
01/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
24/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	7	6	D

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

DDDDLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
13/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Panama vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC Panama win (38%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Panama 38%, draw 29%, CA Independiente de la Chorrera 33%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Panama vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Alianza FC Panama 1.3 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Panama vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.