Football · Panama LPF · 26/09, 03:30

Prediction: CD Arabe Unido vs Herrera FC

Team pages: CD Arabe Unido · Herrera FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

CD Arabe Unido1.98

Herrera FC0.81

1X2

64% 22% 14%

CD Arabe Unido Draw Herrera FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Arabe Unido 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWDWWW

Herrera FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWDLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

CD Arabe Unido 1–1–4 Herrera FC (6 last)

Herrera FC2-1CD Arabe Unido
Herrera FC2-1CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido0-0Herrera FC
CD Arabe Unido2-1Herrera FC
Herrera FC3-0CD Arabe Unido
Herrera FC2-0CD Arabe Unido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Arabe Unido 1533 · Herrera FC 1418

	CD Arabe Unido	Draw	Herrera FC
Our model	64%	23%	13%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Arabe Unido (rating 1533 vs 1418).
H2H favours Herrera FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Arabe Unido	Herrera FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.6	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.4	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.10

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	5.25 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.57
2	9.50 → 6.50▼	Pinn 7.90 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +3’	1.22	5.25	9.50
13:11 +3’	1.40▲	4.10▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +33’	1.34	4.57	7.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Arabe Unido 1–1–4 Herrera FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	2-1 HT 1-1	CD Arabe Unido
31/08/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	2-1 HT 1-1	CD Arabe Unido
28/02/25 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	0-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC
22/09/24 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	2-1 HT 0-1	Herrera FC
24/03/24 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	3-0 HT 1-0	CD Arabe Unido
27/08/23 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	2-0 HT 0-0	CD Arabe Unido

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	9	5	2	2	19	12	17
2	Veraguas CD	9	3	5	1	14	13	14
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	9	2	4	3	14	14	10
4	CD Universitario	9	1	5	3	7	9	8
5	Union Cocle	9	1	2	6	6	16	5
6	Herrera FC	9	1	2	6	7	22	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Arabe Unido	Herrera FC
San Francisco FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Union Cocle	4-1 W	1-0 W
Veraguas CD	3-1 W	2-2 D
CD Universitario	0-0 D	0-1 L
Sporting San Miguelito	1-0 W	1-3 L
Tauro FC	1-0 W	0-6 L
UMECIT	0-0 D	1-3 L
Plaza Amador	2-2 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: CD Arabe Unido (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Arabe Unido

LDLDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	4-1	7	4	W
05/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	7	7	W
30/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
22/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
09/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
01/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
25/07	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	2-0	2-2	1	6	D
03/05	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-3	2	6	L

Herrera FC

LWDLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-2	0-6	9	7	L
13/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
06/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
31/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
23/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
04/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/07	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
02/05	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-2	0-4	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Arabe Unido vs Herrera FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Arabe Unido win (64%). Probabilities: CD Arabe Unido 64%, draw 22%, Herrera FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in CD Arabe Unido vs Herrera FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (CD Arabe Unido 1.98 · Herrera FC 0.81), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Arabe Unido vs Herrera FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.