Football · Panama LPF · 27/09, 23:00

Prediction: Union Cocle vs Plaza Amador

Team pages: Union Cocle · Plaza Amador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Union Cocle1.03

Plaza Amador1.91

1X2

19% 24% 57%

Union Cocle Draw Plaza Amador

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Cocle 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLDLLL

Plaza Amador 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLWDD

Head-to-head

Union Cocle 0–1 Plaza Amador (1 last)

Plaza Amador1-0Union Cocle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Cocle 1425 · Plaza Amador 1570

	Union Cocle	Draw	Plaza Amador
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	19%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plaza Amador (rating 1425 vs 1570).
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Cocle	Plaza Amador
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.60

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.02 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.75
2	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.59

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +5’	4.75	3.60	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +25’	5.02	3.75	1.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Cocle 0–0–1 Plaza Amador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Panama LPF	Plaza Amador	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Cocle

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	9	5	2	2	19	12	17
2	Veraguas CD	9	3	5	1	14	13	14
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	9	2	4	3	14	14	10
4	CD Universitario	9	1	5	3	7	9	8
5	Union Cocle	9	1	2	6	6	16	5
6	Herrera FC	9	1	2	6	7	22	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Cocle	Plaza Amador
UMECIT	0-1 L	3-0 W
CD Arabe Unido	1-4 L	2-2 D
Tauro FC	0-2 L	3-2 W
Alianza FC Panama	2-2 D	4-2 W
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-3 L	2-2 D
Veraguas CD	0-1 L	1-1 D
San Francisco FC	2-1 W	1-4 L
Herrera FC	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Amador (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Cocle

DLWLDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
12/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	1-4	2	4	L
06/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	12	L
30/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
23/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
16/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
09/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
02/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	10	L
06/05	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Plaza Amador

DDWWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
13/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
06/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-1	4-1	7	3	W
30/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	4	2	L
24/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	3-0	0	2	W
17/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
09/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-1	3-2	2	6	W
02/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
25/07	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	0	6	D
24/05	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Cocle vs Plaza Amador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Plaza Amador win (57%). Probabilities: Union Cocle 19%, draw 24%, Plaza Amador 57%.

How many goals are expected in Union Cocle vs Plaza Amador?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Union Cocle 1.03 · Plaza Amador 1.91), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Cocle vs Plaza Amador?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.