Football · Panama LPF · 03/10, 03:30

Prediction: San Francisco FC vs UMECIT

Team pages: San Francisco FC · UMECIT

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

San Francisco FC1.52

UMECIT1.1

1X2

46% 28% 26%

San Francisco FC Draw UMECIT

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

San Francisco FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWDWLW

UMECIT 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLLDWWWL

Head-to-head

San Francisco FC 2–1–3 UMECIT (6 last)

San Francisco FC2-1UMECIT
San Francisco FC0-0UMECIT
UMECIT2-0San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC0-2UMECIT
San Francisco FC0-2UMECIT
UMECIT0-2San Francisco FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Francisco FC 1563 · UMECIT 1479

	San Francisco FC	Draw	UMECIT
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Francisco FC (rating 1563 vs 1479).
H2H favours UMECIT: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Francisco FC	UMECIT
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.22
2	2.90 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.55 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +13’	2.20	3.10	2.90
20:44 +4’	1.95▼	3.20▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +5’	1.98	3.15	3.46
18:38 +129’	2.00▲	3.22▲	3.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Francisco FC 2–1–3 UMECIT

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	2-1 HT 0-1	UMECIT
07/09/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	0-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT
03/05/25 Panama LPF	UMECIT	2-0 HT 0-0	San Francisco FC
04/02/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	0-2 HT 0-0	UMECIT
01/11/24 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	0-2 HT 0-0	UMECIT
21/07/24 Panama LPF	UMECIT	0-2 HT 0-1	San Francisco FC

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	10	6	2	2	22	13	20
2	Veraguas CD	10	3	6	1	15	14	15
3	CD Universitario	10	2	5	3	9	10	11
4	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	10	2	4	4	14	16	10
5	Union Cocle	10	1	2	7	7	18	5
6	Herrera FC	10	1	2	7	8	24	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Francisco FC	UMECIT
Tauro FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
CD Arabe Unido	1-2 L	0-0 D
Sporting San Miguelito	2-0 W	0-1 L
Alianza FC Panama	1-1 D	0-0 D
Plaza Amador	4-1 W	0-3 L
Veraguas CD	3-3 D	1-1 D
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-1 W	2-0 W
Herrera FC	3-1 W	3-1 W
Union Cocle	1-2 L	1-0 W
CD Universitario	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: San Francisco FC (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Francisco FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
19/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
15/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
07/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
23/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
15/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
02/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-2	1-2	10	3	L
26/07	CD Universitario Panama LPF	2-0	2-1	4	5	W

UMECIT

DDDLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-2	8	7	L
22/09	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
13/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	3-1	3-1	2	5	W
08/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
01/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
24/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
16/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
09/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
02/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	7	9	D
26/07	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Francisco FC vs UMECIT?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Francisco FC win (46%). Probabilities: San Francisco FC 46%, draw 28%, UMECIT 26%.

How many goals are expected in San Francisco FC vs UMECIT?

The model expects 2.62 goals (San Francisco FC 1.52 · UMECIT 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Francisco FC vs UMECIT?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.