Football · Panama LPF · 04/10, 23:00

Prediction: Herrera FC vs Alianza FC Panama

Team pages: Herrera FC · Alianza FC Panama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Herrera FC0.71

Alianza FC Panama1.88

1X2

13% 23% 64%

Herrera FC Draw Alianza FC Panama

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Herrera FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLLLLL

Alianza FC Panama 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDDLDW

Head-to-head

Herrera FC 0–1–5 Alianza FC Panama (6 last)

Herrera FC1-2Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama2-1Herrera FC
Herrera FC2-2Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama1-0Herrera FC
Herrera FC1-2Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama3-1Herrera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herrera FC 1405 · Alianza FC Panama 1501

	Herrera FC	Draw	Alianza FC Panama
Our model	12%	23%	64%
Market	13%	23%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC Panama (rating 1405 vs 1501).
H2H favours Alianza FC Panama: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herrera FC	Alianza FC Panama
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.4	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +26’	7.00	4.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Herrera FC 0–1–5 Alianza FC Panama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Panama
27/09/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-1 HT 1-1	Herrera FC
23/03/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Alianza FC Panama
24/08/24 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	1-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC
24/02/24 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Alianza FC Panama
09/09/23 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	3-1 HT 1-0	Herrera FC

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	10	6	2	2	22	13	20
2	Veraguas CD	10	3	6	1	15	14	15
3	CD Universitario	10	2	5	3	9	10	11
4	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	10	2	4	4	14	16	10
5	Union Cocle	10	1	2	7	7	18	5
6	Herrera FC	10	1	2	7	8	24	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herrera FC	Alianza FC Panama
CD Arabe Unido	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tauro FC	0-6 L	2-0 W
UMECIT	1-3 L	0-0 D
Plaza Amador	1-4 L	2-4 L
Sporting San Miguelito	1-3 L	0-0 D
CD Universitario	0-1 L	0-0 D
Veraguas CD	2-2 D	1-2 L
San Francisco FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 D	2-0 W
Union Cocle	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 7 L	3 W 5 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC Panama (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herrera FC

WDLDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	1	6	L
20/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-2	0-6	9	7	L
13/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
06/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
31/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
23/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
04/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/07	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	7	10	W

Alianza FC Panama

DWDLWDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
20/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
07/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
25/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
17/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-3	2-4	5	6	L
10/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
01/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herrera FC vs Alianza FC Panama?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza FC Panama win (64%). Probabilities: Herrera FC 13%, draw 23%, Alianza FC Panama 64%.

How many goals are expected in Herrera FC vs Alianza FC Panama?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Herrera FC 0.71 · Alianza FC Panama 1.88), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Herrera FC vs Alianza FC Panama?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.