Football · Panama LPF · 04/10, 01:15

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Arabe Unido

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · CD Arabe Unido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.1

CD Arabe Unido1.22

1X2

32% 30% 38%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw CD Arabe Unido

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLDWL

CD Arabe Unido 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 3–2–1 CD Arabe Unido (6 last)

CD Arabe Unido2-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido0-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera1-1CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido1-4CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CD Arabe Unido0-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1465 · CD Arabe Unido 1569

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	CD Arabe Unido
Our model	32%	31%	38%
Market	32%	30%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Arabe Unido (rating 1465 vs 1569).
H2H favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	CD Arabe Unido
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.00

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +17’	2.80	3.00	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 3–2–1 CD Arabe Unido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
14/09/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Arabe Unido
30/03/25 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	0-1 HT 0-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
01/10/24 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	1-1 HT 0-1	CD Arabe Unido
06/04/24 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	1-4 HT 0-3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
30/09/23 Panama LPF	CD Arabe Unido	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	10	6	2	2	22	13	20
2	Veraguas CD	10	3	6	1	15	14	15
3	CD Universitario	10	2	5	3	9	10	11
4	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	10	2	4	4	14	16	10
5	Union Cocle	10	1	2	7	7	18	5
6	Herrera FC	10	1	2	7	8	24	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	CD Arabe Unido
Alianza FC Panama	0-2 L	0-1 L
Sporting San Miguelito	4-3 W	1-0 W
Plaza Amador	2-2 D	2-2 D
UMECIT	0-2 L	0-0 D
Tauro FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Union Cocle	3-0 W	4-1 W
San Francisco FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
CD Universitario	2-2 D	0-0 D
Herrera FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Veraguas CD	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 4 L	6 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Arabe Unido (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

DDDLWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
21/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
13/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/07	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

CD Arabe Unido

DLDWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Herrera FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
19/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	4-1	7	4	W
05/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	7	7	W
30/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
22/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
09/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
01/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
25/07	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	2-0	2-2	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Arabe Unido?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Arabe Unido win (38%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 32%, draw 30%, CD Arabe Unido 38%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Arabe Unido?

The model expects 2.32 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.1 · CD Arabe Unido 1.22), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs CD Arabe Unido?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.