Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 26/09, 10:15

Prediction: Banik Sokolov vs FK Ostrov

Team pages: Banik Sokolov · FK Ostrov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Banik Sokolov2.45

FK Ostrov1.09

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Banik Sokolov Draw FK Ostrov

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Banik Sokolov 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWWWLW

FK Ostrov 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWDLL

Head-to-head

Banik Sokolov 1–3–2 FK Ostrov (6 last)

FK Ostrov1-1Banik Sokolov
Banik Sokolov0-2FK Ostrov
Banik Sokolov1-1FK Ostrov
Banik Sokolov3-1FK Ostrov
FK Ostrov2-2Banik Sokolov
Banik Sokolov0-1FK Ostrov

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Banik Sokolov 1530 · FK Ostrov 1455

	Banik Sokolov	Draw	FK Ostrov
Our model	67%	19%	14%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banik Sokolov (rating 1530 vs 1455).
H2H favours FK Ostrov: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Banik Sokolov	FK Ostrov
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.7	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:13 +1’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Banik Sokolov 1–3–2 FK Ostrov

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Ostrov	1-1 HT 1-1	Banik Sokolov
04/10/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Banik Sokolov	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Ostrov
02/08/25 Czechia Cup	Banik Sokolov	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Ostrov
26/04/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Banik Sokolov	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Ostrov
28/09/24 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Ostrov	2-2 HT 1-1	Banik Sokolov
20/07/24 Club Friendly List	Banik Sokolov	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Ostrov

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	7	7	0	0	27	7	21
2	Hlucin	7	6	0	1	18	7	18
3	Kravare	7	5	1	1	19	11	16
4	FC Vratimov	7	5	0	2	14	9	15
5	Jiskra Rymarov	7	4	1	2	18	10	13
6	Opava B	7	4	1	2	16	12	13
7	TJ Novy Jicin	7	4	1	2	15	13	13
8	SK Stonava	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
9	SK Zabreh	7	3	1	3	8	8	10
10	FK Sumperk	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
11	Pusta Polom	7	2	1	4	9	14	7
12	TJ Valasske Mezirici	7	1	3	3	12	17	6
13	Bridlicna	7	1	1	5	9	18	4
14	SSK Bilovec	7	1	1	5	4	15	4
15	Frydek Mistek B	7	1	0	6	11	18	3
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	7	0	0	7	7	28	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Banik Sokolov	FK Ostrov
SK Steti	3-1 W	1-3 L
Chomutov	0-1 L	1-0 W
FC Tempo Prague	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Banik Sokolov (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Banik Sokolov

LDDWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
18/09	FC Karlovy Vary Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
12/09	Hvezda Cheb Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	3-1	4	7	W
05/09	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
30/08	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	10	L
08/08	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	6-0	2	8	W
13/06	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
07/06	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/05	FC Karlovy Vary Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-4	2	6	L

FK Ostrov

WLWLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	FK Brandys nad Labem Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	2-3	6	8	L
19/09	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Slavoj Vysehrad Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
06/09	Slovan Velvary Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
29/08	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-3	4	11	L
16/08	Sokol Hostoun Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
08/08	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
13/06	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/06	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
30/05	Chomutov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Banik Sokolov vs FK Ostrov?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Banik Sokolov win (67%). Probabilities: Banik Sokolov 67%, draw 18%, FK Ostrov 15%.

How many goals are expected in Banik Sokolov vs FK Ostrov?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Banik Sokolov 2.45 · FK Ostrov 1.09), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Banik Sokolov vs FK Ostrov?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.