Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 04/10, 16:00

Prediction: Turnov vs MFK Chrudim B

Team pages: Turnov · MFK Chrudim B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.32Total

Turnov2.97

MFK Chrudim B1.35

1X2

70% 16% 14%

Turnov Draw MFK Chrudim B

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Turnov 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLLWWW

MFK Chrudim B 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Turnov 5–1–0 MFK Chrudim B (6 last)

MFK Chrudim B1-2Turnov
Turnov5-0MFK Chrudim B
Turnov4-1MFK Chrudim B
MFK Chrudim B0-1Turnov
MFK Chrudim B2-2Turnov
Turnov2-0MFK Chrudim B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Turnov 1544 · MFK Chrudim B 1409

	Turnov	Draw	MFK Chrudim B
Our model	70%	16%	14%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.32 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Turnov (rating 1544 vs 1409).
H2H favours Turnov: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Turnov	MFK Chrudim B
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2	1.6 / 3.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:22 +15’	1.28	5.75	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Turnov 5–1–0 MFK Chrudim B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	MFK Chrudim B	1-2 HT 1-2	Turnov
14/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Turnov	5-0 HT 1-0	MFK Chrudim B
30/05/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Turnov	4-1 HT 1-1	MFK Chrudim B
02/11/24 Czechia 4. Liga	MFK Chrudim B	0-1 HT 0-1	Turnov
01/06/24 Czechia 4. Liga	MFK Chrudim B	2-2 HT 1-2	Turnov
05/11/23 Czechia 4. Liga	Turnov	2-0 HT 1-0	MFK Chrudim B

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	8	7	0	1	29	10	21
2	Kravare	8	6	1	1	21	11	19
3	Hlucin	9	6	1	2	20	12	19
4	FC Vratimov	8	6	0	2	17	11	18
5	Jiskra Rymarov	8	4	2	2	20	12	14
6	SK Stonava	8	4	2	2	16	11	14
7	TJ Novy Jicin	9	4	2	3	18	17	14
8	Opava B	8	4	1	3	18	15	13
9	SK Zabreh	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
10	Pusta Polom	8	3	1	4	12	16	10
11	TJ Valasske Mezirici	8	2	3	3	18	17	9
12	FK Sumperk	8	2	1	5	11	14	7
13	Bridlicna	8	2	1	5	11	19	7
14	Frydek Mistek B	8	2	0	6	14	20	6
15	SSK Bilovec	8	1	1	6	4	17	4
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	8	0	0	8	7	34	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Turnov	MFK Chrudim B
Spartak Police Nad Metuji	5-3 W	1-2 L
SK Kosmonosy	4-1 W	1-6 L
FK Chlumec N.C	0-1 L	2-3 L
SK Vysoke Myto	0-2 L	4-4 D
FK Prepere	2-5 L	1-2 L
FK Trutnov	4-0 W	0-5 L
Usti N Orlici	2-2 D	0-6 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Turnov (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Turnov

DWDWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
20/09	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	5-3	–	–	W
13/09	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	4-1	7	5	W
06/09	FK Chlumec N.C Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/08	SK Vysoke Myto Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	FK Prepere Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-5	4	4	L
16/08	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Usti N Orlici Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
13/06	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	4-2	3	5	W
07/06	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	3-2	3-3	3	1	D

MFK Chrudim B

WWLLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
19/09	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-6	3	6	L
12/09	FK Chlumec N.C Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
05/09	SK Vysoke Myto Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	4-4	5	3	D
29/08	FK Prepere Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
22/08	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
15/08	Usti N Orlici Czechia 4. Liga	0-5	0-6	7	2	L
08/08	Cechie Vykan Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	2-7	4	1	L
13/06	Zenit Caslav Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
07/06	FK Nachod Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Turnov vs MFK Chrudim B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Turnov win (70%). Probabilities: Turnov 70%, draw 16%, MFK Chrudim B 14%.

How many goals are expected in Turnov vs MFK Chrudim B?

The model expects 4.32 goals (Turnov 2.97 · MFK Chrudim B 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Turnov vs MFK Chrudim B?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.