Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: FK Kozlovice vs Breclav

Team pages: FK Kozlovice · Breclav

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

FK Kozlovice2.24

Breclav0.92

1X2

67% 19% 14%

FK Kozlovice Draw Breclav

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kozlovice 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWD

Breclav 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWWLD

Head-to-head

FK Kozlovice 2–0 Breclav (2 last)

FK Kozlovice1-0Breclav
Breclav0-2FK Kozlovice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kozlovice 1589 · Breclav 1518

	FK Kozlovice	Draw	Breclav
Our model	66%	20%	13%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kozlovice (rating 1589 vs 1518).
H2H favours FK Kozlovice: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kozlovice	Breclav
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.7	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
08:27 +3’	1.33	5.00	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kozlovice 2–0–0 Breclav

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/06/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Kozlovice	1-0 HT 0-0	Breclav
08/11/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Breclav	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Kozlovice

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	8	7	0	1	29	10	21
2	Kravare	8	6	1	1	21	11	19
3	Hlucin	9	6	1	2	20	12	19
4	FC Vratimov	8	6	0	2	17	11	18
5	Jiskra Rymarov	8	4	2	2	20	12	14
6	SK Stonava	8	4	2	2	16	11	14
7	TJ Novy Jicin	9	4	2	3	18	17	14
8	Opava B	8	4	1	3	18	15	13
9	SK Zabreh	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
10	Pusta Polom	8	3	1	4	12	16	10
11	TJ Valasske Mezirici	8	2	3	3	18	17	9
12	FK Sumperk	8	2	1	5	11	14	7
13	Bridlicna	8	2	1	5	11	19	7
14	Frydek Mistek B	8	2	0	6	14	20	6
15	SSK Bilovec	8	1	1	6	4	17	4
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	8	0	0	8	7	34	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kozlovice	Breclav
SFK Holesov	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Brumov	5-0 W	5-2 W
SK Batov	3-2 W	2-1 W
SK Prostejov B	4-1 W	1-2 L
Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sternberk	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kozlovice (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kozlovice

WWWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	5-0	3	2	W
11/09	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
06/09	SK Prostejov B Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	4-1	11	5	W
30/08	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/08	Sternberk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
14/08	FC Strani Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	1	7	D
09/08	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	5-1	4	2	W
10/06	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
07/06	TJ Skastice Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	5-1	6	4	W

Breclav

WLWDLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Hluk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	SK Krumvir Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	FC Brumov Czechia 4. Liga	4-1	5-2	6	2	W
29/08	SK Batov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	SK Prostejov B Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
16/08	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
08/08	Sternberk Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	8	6	W
10/06	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
06/06	Hanacka Slavia Kromeriz B Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	3-2	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kozlovice vs Breclav?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kozlovice win (67%). Probabilities: FK Kozlovice 67%, draw 19%, Breclav 14%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kozlovice vs Breclav?

The model expects 3.16 goals (FK Kozlovice 2.24 · Breclav 0.92), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kozlovice vs Breclav?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.