Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: FC Strani vs Sternberk

Team pages: FC Strani · Sternberk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

FC Strani3.18

Sternberk1.18

1X2

77% 13% 10%

FC Strani Draw Sternberk

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Strani 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWWWW

Sternberk 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Strani 3–1–0 Sternberk (4 last)

FC Strani1-1Sternberk
Sternberk1-4FC Strani
Sternberk0-3FC Strani
FC Strani5-0Sternberk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Strani 1592 · Sternberk 1454

	FC Strani	Draw	Sternberk
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	78%	12%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Strani (rating 1592 vs 1454).
H2H favours FC Strani: 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Strani	Sternberk
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 1.3	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.7	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.18

X7.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.85

2 (+2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:25 +5’	1.18	7.50	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Strani 3–1–0 Sternberk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Strani	1-1 HT 0-1	Sternberk
27/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	1-4 HT 0-1	FC Strani
11/05/24 Czechia 4. Liga	Sternberk	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Strani
08/10/23 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Strani	5-0 HT 3-0	Sternberk

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	8	7	0	1	29	10	21
2	Kravare	8	6	1	1	21	11	19
3	Hlucin	9	6	1	2	20	12	19
4	FC Vratimov	8	6	0	2	17	11	18
5	Jiskra Rymarov	8	4	2	2	20	12	14
6	SK Stonava	8	4	2	2	16	11	14
7	TJ Novy Jicin	9	4	2	3	18	17	14
8	Opava B	8	4	1	3	18	15	13
9	SK Zabreh	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
10	Pusta Polom	8	3	1	4	12	16	10
11	TJ Valasske Mezirici	8	2	3	3	18	17	9
12	FK Sumperk	8	2	1	5	11	14	7
13	Bridlicna	8	2	1	5	11	19	7
14	Frydek Mistek B	8	2	0	6	14	20	6
15	SSK Bilovec	8	1	1	6	4	17	4
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	8	0	0	8	7	34	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Strani	Sternberk
Bzenec	6-3 W	1-0 W
Tatran Vsechovice	4-3 W	1-6 L
Slavicin	2-1 W	1-3 L
FK Nove Sady	9-0 W	6-0 W
TJ Sokol Lanzhot	3-1 W	4-1 W
FK Kozlovice	2-2 D	0-1 L
Hluk	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Strani (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Strani

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	SK Krumvir Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	5-0	4	5	W
19/09	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	6-3	9	5	W
12/09	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
05/09	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	FK Nove Sady Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	9-0	7	0	W
23/08	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
14/08	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
08/08	Hluk Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-1	6	1	W
12/06	SFK Holesov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/06	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	7	7	L

Sternberk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Bzenec Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	Tatran Vsechovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Slavicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	FK Nove Sady Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	6-0	8	3	W
29/08	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
23/08	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
15/08	Hluk Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
03/06	FK Kozlovice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
30/05	Breclav Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Strani vs Sternberk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Strani win (77%). Probabilities: FC Strani 77%, draw 13%, Sternberk 10%.

How many goals are expected in FC Strani vs Sternberk?

The model expects 4.36 goals (FC Strani 3.18 · Sternberk 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Strani vs Sternberk?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.