Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: MFK Chrudim B vs Spartak Police Nad Metuji

Team pages: MFK Chrudim B · Spartak Police Nad Metuji

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

MFK Chrudim B1.71

Spartak Police Nad Metuji2.59

1X2

24% 20% 56%

MFK Chrudim B Draw Spartak Police Nad Metuji

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

MFK Chrudim B 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Spartak Police Nad Metuji 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

MFK Chrudim B 0–1–3 Spartak Police Nad Metuji (4 last)

Spartak Police Nad Metuji2-0MFK Chrudim B
MFK Chrudim B2-2Spartak Police Nad Metuji
MFK Chrudim B1-4Spartak Police Nad Metuji
Spartak Police Nad Metuji3-2MFK Chrudim B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MFK Chrudim B 1436 · Spartak Police Nad Metuji 1462

	MFK Chrudim B	Draw	Spartak Police Nad Metuji
Our model	24%	20%	56%
Market	24%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spartak Police Nad Metuji: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MFK Chrudim B	Spartak Police Nad Metuji
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3.7	1.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.7	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
X	3.90 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.43 ★
2	1.91 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:20 +1’	3.00	3.90	1.91
14:09 +2’	3.60▲	4.10▲	1.70▼
05:44 +9’	4.10▲	4.20▲	1.57▼
12:26 +15’	3.80▼	4.33▲	1.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:25 +28’	4.37	4.19	1.51
12:35 +6’	3.59▼	4.43▲	1.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MFK Chrudim B 0–1–3 Spartak Police Nad Metuji

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	Spartak Police Nad Metuji	2-0 HT 1-0	MFK Chrudim B
20/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	MFK Chrudim B	2-2 HT 0-1	Spartak Police Nad Metuji
12/04/25 Czechia 4. Liga	MFK Chrudim B	1-4 HT 0-1	Spartak Police Nad Metuji
16/10/24 Czechia 4. Liga	Spartak Police Nad Metuji	3-2 HT 2-0	MFK Chrudim B

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	7	7	0	0	27	7	21
2	Hlucin	7	6	0	1	18	7	18
3	Kravare	7	5	1	1	19	11	16
4	FC Vratimov	7	5	0	2	14	9	15
5	Jiskra Rymarov	7	4	1	2	18	10	13
6	Opava B	7	4	1	2	16	12	13
7	TJ Novy Jicin	7	4	1	2	15	13	13
8	SK Stonava	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
9	SK Zabreh	7	3	1	3	8	8	10
10	FK Sumperk	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
11	Pusta Polom	7	2	1	4	9	14	7
12	TJ Valasske Mezirici	7	1	3	3	12	17	6
13	Bridlicna	7	1	1	5	9	18	4
14	SSK Bilovec	7	1	1	5	4	15	4
15	Frydek Mistek B	7	1	0	6	11	18	3
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	7	0	0	7	7	28	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MFK Chrudim B	Spartak Police Nad Metuji
SK Kosmonosy	1-6 L	1-4 L
FK Chlumec N.C	2-3 L	3-1 W
SK Vysoke Myto	4-4 D	0-2 L
FK Prepere	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Trutnov	0-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Spartak Police Nad Metuji (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MFK Chrudim B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-6	3	6	L
12/09	FK Chlumec N.C Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
05/09	SK Vysoke Myto Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	4-4	5	3	D
29/08	FK Prepere Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
22/08	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
15/08	Usti N Orlici Czechia 4. Liga	0-5	0-6	7	2	L
08/08	Cechie Vykan Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	2-7	4	1	L
13/06	Zenit Caslav Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
07/06	FK Nachod Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
31/05	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	3-2	5	7	W

Spartak Police Nad Metuji

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Turnov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	3-5	–	–	L
13/09	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
05/09	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-4	7	4	L
30/08	FK Chlumec N.C Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	SK Vysoke Myto Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
16/08	FK Prepere Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
13/06	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
07/06	TJ Svitavy Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
30/05	Hlinsko Czechia 4. Liga	2-2	2-2	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MFK Chrudim B vs Spartak Police Nad Metuji?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spartak Police Nad Metuji win (56%). Probabilities: MFK Chrudim B 24%, draw 20%, Spartak Police Nad Metuji 56%.

How many goals are expected in MFK Chrudim B vs Spartak Police Nad Metuji?

The model expects 4.3 goals (MFK Chrudim B 1.71 · Spartak Police Nad Metuji 2.59), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MFK Chrudim B vs Spartak Police Nad Metuji?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.