Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 27/09, 16:30

Prediction: TJ Svitavy vs FK Trutnov

Team pages: TJ Svitavy · FK Trutnov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

TJ Svitavy1.46

FK Trutnov1.81

1X2

31% 23% 46%

TJ Svitavy Draw FK Trutnov

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

TJ Svitavy 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLDD

FK Trutnov 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWDLW

Head-to-head

TJ Svitavy 0–1–1 FK Trutnov (2 last)

TJ Svitavy0-0FK Trutnov
FK Trutnov6-0TJ Svitavy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TJ Svitavy 1448 · FK Trutnov 1492

	TJ Svitavy	Draw	FK Trutnov
Our model	30%	25%	45%
Market	31%	22%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Trutnov (rating 1448 vs 1492).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TJ Svitavy	FK Trutnov
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.6	4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X4.10

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	2.10 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +72’	2.60	4.00	2.10
07:41 +4’	2.88▲	4.10▲	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TJ Svitavy 0–1–1 FK Trutnov

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Czechia 4. Liga	TJ Svitavy	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Trutnov
07/09/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Trutnov	6-0 HT 4-0	TJ Svitavy

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	7	7	0	0	27	7	21
2	Hlucin	7	6	0	1	18	7	18
3	Kravare	7	5	1	1	19	11	16
4	FC Vratimov	7	5	0	2	14	9	15
5	Jiskra Rymarov	7	4	1	2	18	10	13
6	Opava B	7	4	1	2	16	12	13
7	TJ Novy Jicin	7	4	1	2	15	13	13
8	SK Stonava	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
9	SK Zabreh	7	3	1	3	8	8	10
10	FK Sumperk	7	2	1	4	10	12	7
11	Pusta Polom	7	2	1	4	9	14	7
12	TJ Valasske Mezirici	7	1	3	3	12	17	6
13	Bridlicna	7	1	1	5	9	18	4
14	SSK Bilovec	7	1	1	5	4	15	4
15	Frydek Mistek B	7	1	0	6	11	18	3
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	7	0	0	7	7	28	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TJ Svitavy	FK Trutnov
Dvur Kralove	0-1 L	2-0 W
Hlinsko	0-6 L	0-1 L
FC Slavia HK	2-3 L	2-2 D
Letohrad	3-1 W	2-1 W
Spartak Police Nad Metuji	4-2 W	1-2 L
Turnov	4-3 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TJ Svitavy

WWLWLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Usti N Orlici Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Cechie Vykan Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
06/09	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
30/08	Dvur Kralove Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Hlinsko Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	0-6	–	–	L
15/08	FC Slavia HK Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	2-3	3	6	L
09/08	Letohrad Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
13/06	FK Horni Redice Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
07/06	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
31/05	Turnov Czechia 4. Liga	2-3	4-3	5	5	W

FK Trutnov

LWLLLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Dvur Kralove Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Hlinsko Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	13	4	L
05/09	FC Slavia HK Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-2	6	3	D
29/08	Letohrad Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	MFK Chrudim B Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
16/08	Turnov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
08/08	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
13/06	Turnov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	2-4	6	5	L
07/06	Slovan Hradek nad Nisou Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/05	MFK Chrudim B Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	2-3	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TJ Svitavy vs FK Trutnov?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Trutnov win (46%). Probabilities: TJ Svitavy 31%, draw 23%, FK Trutnov 46%.

How many goals are expected in TJ Svitavy vs FK Trutnov?

The model expects 3.27 goals (TJ Svitavy 1.46 · FK Trutnov 1.81), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in TJ Svitavy vs FK Trutnov?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.