Football · Colombia Primera B · 30/09, 01:00
Prediction: Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena
Team pages: Union Magdalena · Real Cartagena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Union Magdalena1.29
Real Cartagena1.1
1X2
Union Magdalena
Draw
Real Cartagena
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Magdalena
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Real Cartagena
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Magdalena
2–1–3
Real Cartagena
(6 last)
- Union Magdalena3-0Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena2-1Union Magdalena
- Real Cartagena2-1Union Magdalena
- Real Cartagena2-0Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena2-2Real Cartagena
- Union Magdalena1-0Real Cartagena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Magdalena 1458 · Real Cartagena 1512
| Union Magdalena | Draw | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Cartagena (rating 1458 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Real Cartagena: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Magdalena | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Magdalena 2–1–3 Real Cartagena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Real Cartagena |
| 09/05/26 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Union Magdalena |
| 23/03/26 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Union Magdalena |
| 26/08/24 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union Magdalena |
| 12/03/24 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Real Cartagena |
| 31/08/21 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Cartagena |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Tigres FC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Patriotas FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | Atletico Cali FC | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 8 | Real San Andres | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | Bogota FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Envigado FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportes Quindio | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 13 | Orsomarso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| 14 | Itagui Leones | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 9 |
| 15 | Barranquilla FC | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 8 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Magdalena | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Envigado FC | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Tigres FC | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Orsomarso | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Bogota FC | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Cartagena (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Magdalena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 13/09 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/08 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
Real Cartagena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 13/09 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
4-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 07/08 | Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Magdalena win (40%). Probabilities: Union Magdalena 40%, draw 30%, Real Cartagena 30%.
How many goals are expected in Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Union Magdalena 1.29 · Real Cartagena 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.