Prediction: Brisbane Roar NPL vs Rochedale Rovers
Expected goals: 3.81 (Brisbane Roar NPL 1.85 · Rochedale Rovers 1.97). The model gives 36% home, 23% draw, 41% away. Under 3.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Brisbane Roar NPL is 1-1-8 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Rochedale Rovers 4-1-5 over its own. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Brisbane Roar NPL and 1 for Rochedale Rovers, with 1 draw.
| Brisbane Roar NPL | Draw | Rochedale Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rochedale Rovers (rating 1421 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Brisbane Roar NPL: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Roar NPL | Rochedale Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.9 | 1.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Roar NPL 3–1–1 Rochedale Rovers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Rochedale Rovers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Brisbane Roar NPL |
| 20/07/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane Roar NPL | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Rochedale Rovers |
| 21/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Rochedale Rovers | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Brisbane Roar NPL |
| 15/07/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Rochedale Rovers | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Brisbane Roar NPL |
| 08/04/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane Roar NPL | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Rochedale Rovers |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 20 | 41 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 18 | 38 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 32 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 28 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 39 | 26 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 34 | 25 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 35 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 15 |
| 10 | Magic United | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 50 | 13 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Roar NPL | Rochedale Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Peninsula Power | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Gold Coast United | 4-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Magic United | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Wynnum Wolves | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Eastern Suburbs | 1-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Lions FC | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Gold Coast Knights | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior | 0-6 L | 2-5 L |
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 1-5 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 8 L | 3 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Rochedale Rovers (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Roar NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 02/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 5 | L |
Rochedale Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/06 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
0-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/06 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 30/04 | Wynnum Wolves Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
0-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Rochedale Rovers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Rochedale Rovers win (41%). Probabilities: Brisbane Roar NPL 36%, draw 23%, Rochedale Rovers 41%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Rochedale Rovers?
The model expects 3.81 goals (Brisbane Roar NPL 1.85 · Rochedale Rovers 1.97), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Rochedale Rovers?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.