Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 18/07, 09:00
Prediction: Rochedale Rovers vs Brisbane City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.26Total
Rochedale Rovers1.92
Brisbane City2.34
1X2
Rochedale Rovers
Draw
Brisbane City
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Rochedale Rovers
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Brisbane City
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rochedale Rovers
1–3–2
Brisbane City
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rochedale Rovers 1458 · Brisbane City 1506
| Rochedale Rovers | Draw | Brisbane City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 21% | 47% |
| Market | 31% | 21% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.26 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (rating 1458 vs 1506).
- H2H favours Brisbane City: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rochedale Rovers | Brisbane City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.2 | 2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rochedale Rovers 1–3–2 Brisbane City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane City | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Rochedale Rovers |
| 10/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Rochedale Rovers |
| 12/05/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Rochedale Rovers | 0-8 HT 0-4 | Brisbane City |
| 08/07/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Rochedale Rovers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Brisbane City |
| 26/03/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Brisbane City | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Rochedale Rovers |
| 28/01/23 Australia Friendlies | Rochedale Rovers | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Brisbane City |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 20 | 42 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 41 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 28 | 35 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 33 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 27 | 28 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 39 | 27 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 34 | 26 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 45 | 15 |
| 10 | Gold Coast United | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 35 | 13 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 43 | 13 |
| 12 | Magic United | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 54 | 13 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rochedale Rovers | Brisbane City |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar NPL | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Gold Coast Knights | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Lions FC | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior | 2-5 L | 5-2 W |
| Peninsula Power | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Magic United | 4-0 W | 5-3 W |
| Gold Coast United | 0-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 5 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Rochedale Rovers (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rochedale Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | SD Raiders Australia Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/06 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
0-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/06 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Brisbane City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-2 | 5-3 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
3-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rochedale Rovers vs Brisbane City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Brisbane City win (47%). Probabilities: Rochedale Rovers 31%, draw 21%, Brisbane City 47%.
How many goals are expected in Rochedale Rovers vs Brisbane City?
The model expects 4.26 goals (Rochedale Rovers 1.92 · Brisbane City 2.34), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Rochedale Rovers vs Brisbane City?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.