Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 18/07, 07:00
Prediction: Gold Coast United vs Lions FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.39Total
Gold Coast United0.78
Lions FC2.61
1X2
Gold Coast United
Draw
Lions FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Gold Coast United
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Lions FC
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gold Coast United
3–1–2
Lions FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gold Coast United 1393 · Lions FC 1614
| Gold Coast United | Draw | Lions FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| Market | 10% | 13% | 77% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1393 vs 1614).
- H2H favours Gold Coast United: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gold Coast United | Lions FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 2.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.9 | 2.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast United 3–1–2 Lions FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Lions FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gold Coast United |
| 09/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Lions FC |
| 18/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Lions FC | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Gold Coast United |
| 04/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Lions FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Gold Coast United |
| 28/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast United | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Lions FC |
| 15/07/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast United | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lions FC |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 20 | 42 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 41 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 28 | 35 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 33 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 27 | 28 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 39 | 27 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 34 | 26 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 45 | 15 |
| 10 | Gold Coast United | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 35 | 13 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 43 | 13 |
| 12 | Magic United | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 24 | 54 | 13 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gold Coast United | Lions FC |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Magic United | 1-3 L | 5-3 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Brisbane Roar NPL | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Brisbane City | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Wynnum Wolves | 1-2 L | 6-2 W |
| Rochedale Rovers | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Eastern Suburbs | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 6 L | 8 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lions FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gold Coast United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 07/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/05 | North Star Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
Lions FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/07 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 6-2 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
4-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gold Coast United vs Lions FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lions FC win (77%). Probabilities: Gold Coast United 9%, draw 14%, Lions FC 77%.
How many goals are expected in Gold Coast United vs Lions FC?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Gold Coast United 0.78 · Lions FC 2.61), with a 59% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Gold Coast United vs Lions FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.