Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 18/07, 08:30

Prediction: Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Moreton City Excelsior1.89

Peninsula Power1.89

1X2

39% 23% 39%

Moreton City Excelsior Draw Peninsula Power

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Moreton City Excelsior 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Peninsula Power 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Moreton City Excelsior 2–2–2 Peninsula Power (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moreton City Excelsior 1534 · Peninsula Power 1586

	Moreton City Excelsior	Draw	Peninsula Power
Our model	39%	23%	39%
Market	39%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peninsula Power (rating 1534 vs 1586).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moreton City Excelsior	Peninsula Power
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.9	2.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.2	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreton City Excelsior 2–2–2 Peninsula Power

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	1-4 HT 0-1	Moreton City Excelsior
17/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	0-2 HT 0-1	Moreton City Excelsior
10/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	3-3 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power
15/01/25 Australia Friendlies	Moreton City Excelsior	1-3 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power
01/09/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	2-2 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power
10/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	1-3 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Peninsula Power	18	13	3	2	43	20	42
2	Lions FC	18	13	2	3	49	20	41
3	Moreton City Excelsior	18	11	2	5	47	28	35
4	Gold Coast Knights	17	10	3	4	40	25	33
5	Eastern Suburbs	18	9	1	8	32	27	28
6	Brisbane City	18	7	6	5	38	39	27
7	Wynnum Wolves	18	7	5	6	29	34	26
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	18	6	2	10	31	38	20
9	Rochedale Rovers	18	4	3	11	27	45	15
10	Gold Coast United	17	4	1	12	22	35	13
11	Brisbane Roar NPL	18	4	1	13	26	43	13
12	Magic United	18	4	1	13	24	54	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moreton City Excelsior	Peninsula Power
Magic United	4-3 W	3-2 W
Gold Coast Knights	1-2 L	2-0 W
Gold Coast United	1-0 W	4-0 W
Wynnum Wolves	2-2 D	0-0 D
Rochedale Rovers	5-2 W	2-0 W
Eastern Suburbs	0-0 D	3-1 W
Brisbane Olympic FC	4-3 W	3-1 W
Brisbane Roar NPL	6-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Peninsula Power (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Moreton City Excelsior

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
04/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
28/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
16/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	5-2	10	2	W
05/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/05	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-3	2-5	5	7	L
16/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	8	2	W
09/05	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
25/04	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	6-0	6	2	W

Peninsula Power

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Apia L Tigers Australia Cup	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
10/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
21/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
06/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
30/05	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-0	9	5	W
23/05	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
20/05	Moggill Australia Cup Qualifying	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
15/05	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moreton City Excelsior win (39%). Probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior 39%, draw 23%, Peninsula Power 39%.

How many goals are expected in Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Moreton City Excelsior 1.89 · Peninsula Power 1.89), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior vs Peninsula Power?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.