Football · Colombia Primera B · 28/09, 23:00
Prediction: Internacional FC de Palmira vs Itagui Leones
Team pages: Internacional FC de Palmira · Itagui Leones
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Internacional FC de Palmira1.51
Itagui Leones0.81
1X2
Internacional FC de Palmira
Draw
Itagui Leones
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Internacional FC de Palmira
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Itagui Leones
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Internacional FC de Palmira
3–1–2
Itagui Leones
(6 last)
- Itagui Leones1-2Internacional FC de Palmira
- Internacional FC de Palmira1-0Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones1-2Internacional FC de Palmira
- Itagui Leones2-0Internacional FC de Palmira
- Internacional FC de Palmira2-2Itagui Leones
- Internacional FC de Palmira0-1Itagui Leones
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Internacional FC de Palmira 1483 · Itagui Leones 1443
| Internacional FC de Palmira | Draw | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional FC de Palmira (rating 1483 vs 1443).
- H2H favours Internacional FC de Palmira: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Internacional FC de Palmira | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 2.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional FC de Palmira 3–1–2 Itagui Leones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Internacional FC de Palmira |
| 11/09/25 Colombia Primera B | Internacional FC de Palmira | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 12/03/25 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Internacional FC de Palmira |
| 02/10/24 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Internacional FC de Palmira |
| 21/02/24 Colombia Primera B | Internacional FC de Palmira | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Itagui Leones |
| 20/09/23 Colombia Primera B | Internacional FC de Palmira | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Itagui Leones |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tigres FC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Patriotas FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 14 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | Atletico Cali FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| 8 | Real San Andres | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | Bogota FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Deportes Quindio | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 12 | Orsomarso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Itagui Leones | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | Barranquilla FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 8 |
| 15 | Envigado FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Internacional FC de Palmira | Itagui Leones |
|---|---|---|
| Real Cartagena | 2-1 W | 1-6 L |
| Atletico Cali FC | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportes Quindio | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Bogota FC | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Tigres FC | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Itagui Leones (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Internacional FC de Palmira
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/09 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 03/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 5 | D |
| 26/07 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 19/05 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Itagui Leones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 12 | 9 | L |
| 28/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-4 | 1-6 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 06/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Itagui Leones?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional FC de Palmira win (54%). Probabilities: Internacional FC de Palmira 54%, draw 26%, Itagui Leones 20%.
How many goals are expected in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Itagui Leones?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Internacional FC de Palmira 1.51 · Itagui Leones 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Itagui Leones?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.