Football · USA USL Cup · 12/07, 01:00
Prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Loudoun United FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.7
Loudoun United FC1.11
1X2
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Draw
Loudoun United FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Loudoun United FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3–2–1
Loudoun United FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1546 · Loudoun United FC 1455
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Draw | Loudoun United FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds (rating 1546 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Loudoun United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.5 | 1.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3–2–1 Loudoun United FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 USA USL Championship | Loudoun United FC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 13/07/25 USA USL Championship | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Loudoun United FC |
| 19/04/25 USA USL Championship | Loudoun United FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 20/10/24 USA USL Championship | Loudoun United FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 28/07/24 USA USL Championship | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Loudoun United FC |
| 10/09/23 USA USL Championship | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Loudoun United FC |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 6
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Loudoun United FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Greenville Triumph SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Richmond Kickers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Loudoun United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn FC | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Charleston Battery | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Greenville Triumph SC | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Detroit City FC | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Loudoun United FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Loudoun United FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win (50%). Probabilities: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 50%, draw 26%, Loudoun United FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Loudoun United FC?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.7 · Loudoun United FC 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Loudoun United FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.