Prediction: Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC
| Monterey Bay FC | Draw | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 42% | 24% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monterey Bay FC | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.7 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterey Bay FC 2–2–2 Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 26/10/25 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 15/06/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 15/09/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 14/04/24 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 17/09/23 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacramento Republic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Spokane Velocity FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | AC Boise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Oakland Roots | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Monterey Bay FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monterey Bay FC | Las Vegas Lights FC |
|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Tulsa | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Birmingham Legion FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| AC Boise | 3-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Lexington SC | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Las Vegas Lights FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/06 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | AC Boise USA USL Cup |
3-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | AC Boise USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monterey Bay FC win (41%). Probabilities: Monterey Bay FC 41%, draw 26%, Las Vegas Lights FC 33%.
How many goals are expected in Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Monterey Bay FC 1.41 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1.25), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Monterey Bay FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.