Prediction: AC Boise vs Sacramento Republic
| AC Boise | Draw | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1480 vs 1524).
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Boise | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.9 | 3.2 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacramento Republic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Spokane Velocity FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | AC Boise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Oakland Roots | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Monterey Bay FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AC Boise | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Spokane Velocity FC | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Monterey Bay FC | 4-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Boise
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 03/07 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/06 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 07/06 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 7 | D |
| 28/05 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
1-3 | 4-3 | 6 | 7 | W |
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 22/04 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AC Boise vs Sacramento Republic?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sacramento Republic win (39%). Probabilities: AC Boise 35%, draw 25%, Sacramento Republic 39%.
How many goals are expected in AC Boise vs Sacramento Republic?
The model expects 2.95 goals (AC Boise 1.43 · Sacramento Republic 1.52), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in AC Boise vs Sacramento Republic?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.