Prediction: Louisville City FC vs Lexington SC
| Louisville City FC | Draw | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Louisville City FC: 5-0-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Louisville City FC | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.1 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Louisville City FC 5–0–0 Lexington SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 USA US Open Cup | Lexington SC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Louisville City FC |
| 07/03/26 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Louisville City FC |
| 27/07/25 USA USL Cup | Lexington SC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Louisville City FC |
| 02/05/25 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lexington SC |
| 06/04/23 USA US Open Cup | Louisville City FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lexington SC |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 4
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Indy Eleven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Lexington SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Union Omaha | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Detroit City FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Fort Wayne FC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Forward Madison FC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Louisville City FC | Lexington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit City FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Louisville City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 11/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Union Omaha USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Louisville City FC vs Lexington SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Louisville City FC win (55%). Probabilities: Louisville City FC 55%, draw 23%, Lexington SC 22%.
How many goals are expected in Louisville City FC vs Lexington SC?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Louisville City FC 1.89 · Lexington SC 1.12), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Louisville City FC vs Lexington SC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.