Football · USA USL Cup · 12/07, 02:00

Prediction: Birmingham Legion FC vs Tulsa

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Birmingham Legion FC1.42
Tulsa0.96
1X2
48% 27% 25%
Birmingham Legion FC Draw Tulsa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Birmingham Legion FC 1-6-3 (W-D-L)
DDLDWLDDLD
Tulsa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
DWWWWDLLWL
Head-to-head
Birmingham Legion FC 3–2–1 Tulsa (6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birmingham Legion FC 1481 · Tulsa 1520
Birmingham Legion FCDrawTulsa
Our model46%29%24%
Market49%25%26%
Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Birmingham Legion FC: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Birmingham Legion FCTulsa
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 1.11.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.40.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.9 / 4.62 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.4 / 05.7 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham Legion FC 321 Tulsa

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DateHomeScoreAway
07/09/25
USA USL Championship
Tulsa1-1
HT 1-0
Birmingham Legion FC
01/06/25
USA USL Cup
Tulsa1-2
HT 0-0
Birmingham Legion FC
05/05/24
USA USL Championship
Birmingham Legion FC2-2
HT 0-1
Tulsa
24/08/23
USA USL Championship
Tulsa1-3
HT 1-3
Birmingham Legion FC
18/03/23
USA USL Championship
Birmingham Legion FC3-2
HT 1-0
Tulsa
24/07/22
USA USL Championship
Birmingham Legion FC0-2
HT 0-1
Tulsa

Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 3

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#Team PWL GFGAPts
1 San Antonio FC 220 008
2 Birmingham Legion FC 110 006
3 One Knoxville SC 101 004
4 Tulsa 211 004
5 Corpus Christi FC 312 003
6 Chattanooga Red Wolves 101 002

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentBirmingham Legion FCTulsa
Las Vegas Lights FC 1-2 L 0-0 D
Corpus Christi FC 3-0 W 1-0 W
Monterey Bay FC 0-2 L 2-0 W
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 2 L 2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tulsa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Birmingham Legion FC

DDLDWLDDLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/07 Miami FC
USA USL Championship
0-1 1-1 101 D
03/07 Detroit City FC
USA USL Championship
1-1 1-2 58 L
21/06 Loudoun United FC
USA USL Championship
0-0 1-1 53 D
17/06 Oakland Roots
USA USL Championship
1-0 1-1 46 D
14/06 Las Vegas Lights FC
USA USL Championship
0-1 1-2 23 L
10/06 Corpus Christi FC
USA USL Cup
2-0 3-0 65 W
04/06 Louisville City FC
USA USL Championship
1-1 1-1 26 D
24/05 Monterey Bay FC
USA USL Championship
0-0 0-2 44 L
17/05 Chattanooga Red Wolves
USA USL Cup
0-0 1-1 35 D
08/05 Miami FC
USA USL Championship
0-0 0-0 53 D

Tulsa

DWWWWDLLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Colorado Switchbacks FC
USA USL Championship
1-0 1-2 04 L
18/06 Monterey Bay FC
USA USL Championship
1-0 2-0 25 W
14/06 Charleston Battery
USA USL Championship
1-3 1-5 44 L
07/06 San Antonio FC
USA USL Cup
1-0 1-2 29 L
31/05 Las Vegas Lights FC
USA USL Championship
0-0 0-0 31 D
23/05 Hartford Athletic
USA USL Championship
1-0 2-0 39 W
17/05 Corpus Christi FC
USA USL Cup
0-0 1-0 710 W
04/05 Monterey Bay FC
USA USL Championship
0-1 2-1 25 W
30/04 El Paso Locomotive FC
USA USL Championship
1-0 4-1 311 W
26/04 One Knoxville SC
USA USL Cup
0-1 1-1 103 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birmingham Legion FC vs Tulsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham Legion FC win (48%). Probabilities: Birmingham Legion FC 48%, draw 27%, Tulsa 25%.

How many goals are expected in Birmingham Legion FC vs Tulsa?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Birmingham Legion FC 1.42 · Tulsa 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Birmingham Legion FC vs Tulsa?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.