Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 · 11/07, 19:45

Prediction: America RJ vs Americano RJ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

America RJ1.21

Americano RJ1.18

1X2

35% 31% 34%

America RJ Draw Americano RJ

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

America RJ 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Americano RJ 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

America RJ 1–3–2 Americano RJ (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America RJ 1483 · Americano RJ 1585

	America RJ	Draw	Americano RJ
Our model	35%	30%	34%
Market	35%	32%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Americano RJ (rating 1483 vs 1585).
H2H favours Americano RJ: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America RJ	Americano RJ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	3.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · America RJ 1–3–2 Americano RJ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	America RJ	0-2 HT 0-0	Americano RJ
12/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	America RJ	1-0 HT 1-0	Americano RJ
31/07/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Americano RJ	0-0 HT 0-0	America RJ
10/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	America RJ	0-2 HT 0-2	Americano RJ
14/05/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	America RJ	1-1 HT 0-0	Americano RJ
22/09/21 Brazil Copa Rio	America RJ	1-1 HT 1-0	Americano RJ

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Americano RJ	11	8	1	2	18	9	25
2	Marica RJ	11	7	3	1	11	7	24
3	Resende RJ	11	5	4	2	16	9	19
4	America RJ	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
5	Perolas Negras	11	5	1	5	11	15	16
6	Sao Goncalo	11	4	2	5	11	10	14
7	Bonsucesso FC	11	4	2	5	10	11	14
8	Olaria AC	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
9	Cabofriense	11	3	3	5	12	13	12
10	Araruama FC	11	3	2	6	11	15	11
11	Serrano	11	2	5	4	10	18	11
12	Audax Rio	11	3	0	8	10	17	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America RJ	Americano RJ
Serrano	5-0 W	2-1 W
Bonsucesso FC	2-3 L	2-0 W
Araruama FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Cabofriense	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

America RJ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/07	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
27/06	XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
24/06	Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
20/06	XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
13/06	Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
10/06	Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
06/06	EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
03/06	Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
31/05	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D	0-0	2-2	8	6	D

Americano RJ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
27/06	Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
23/06	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
20/06	Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
17/06	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio	0-0	0-0	14	2	D
14/06	Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
06/06	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	2-0	3-1	6	9	W
30/05	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/05	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/05	Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America RJ vs Americano RJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a America RJ win (35%). Probabilities: America RJ 35%, draw 31%, Americano RJ 34%.

How many goals are expected in America RJ vs Americano RJ?

The model expects 2.39 goals (America RJ 1.21 · Americano RJ 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in America RJ vs Americano RJ?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.