Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 · 18/07, 19:45

Prediction: Marica RJ vs Resende RJ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

Marica RJ1.16

Resende RJ0.76

1X2

45% 32% 23%

Marica RJ Draw Resende RJ

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Marica RJ 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Resende RJ 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Marica RJ 1–3 Resende RJ (4 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marica RJ 1495 · Resende RJ 1525

	Marica RJ	Draw	Resende RJ
Our model	44%	33%	23%
Market	45%	31%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.92 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Resende RJ: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marica RJ	Resende RJ
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.88

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.75

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.48 ★
X	2.80 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
2	3.40 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +1’	2.15	2.80	3.40
23:02 +6’	2.45▲	2.75▼	2.90▼
00:07 +3’	2.00▼	2.88▲	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:09	2.80	2.45	2.96
00:11	2.48▼	2.44▼	3.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marica RJ 1–0–3 Resende RJ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Resende RJ	1-0 HT 0-0	Marica RJ
29/04/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Resende RJ	4-0 HT 3-0	Marica RJ
13/07/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Marica RJ	1-0 HT 0-0	Resende RJ
26/07/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Resende RJ	1-0 HT 0-0	Marica RJ

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Americano RJ	11	8	1	2	18	9	25
2	Marica RJ	11	7	3	1	11	7	24
3	Resende RJ	11	5	4	2	16	9	19
4	America RJ	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
5	Perolas Negras	11	5	1	5	11	15	16
6	Sao Goncalo	11	4	2	5	11	10	14
7	Bonsucesso FC	11	4	2	5	10	11	14
8	Olaria AC	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
9	Cabofriense	11	3	3	5	12	13	12
10	Araruama FC	11	3	2	6	11	15	11
11	Serrano	11	2	5	4	10	18	11
12	Audax Rio	11	3	0	8	10	17	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marica RJ	Resende RJ
Americano RJ	1-1 D	1-2 L
Audax Rio	1-0 W	0-2 L
Serrano	1-1 D	0-0 D
Bonsucesso FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Araruama FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Marica RJ (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Marica RJ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Perolas Negras Brazil Copa Rio	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
11/07	Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
04/07	Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
27/06	Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
20/06	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
14/06	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
10/06	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
07/06	Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-3	8	6	L
03/06	Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
30/05	Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	9	4	W

Resende RJ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Copa Rio	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
11/07	Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/07	Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-2	1-2	10	5	L
27/06	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-2	0-2	8	12	L
24/06	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Copa Rio	3-0	8-1	6	3	W
20/06	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/06	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Copa Rio	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
13/06	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/06	Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
30/05	Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-1	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marica RJ vs Resende RJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marica RJ win (45%). Probabilities: Marica RJ 45%, draw 32%, Resende RJ 23%.

How many goals are expected in Marica RJ vs Resende RJ?

The model expects 1.92 goals (Marica RJ 1.16 · Resende RJ 0.76), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Marica RJ vs Resende RJ?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.