Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 · 18/07, 19:45

Prediction: Americano RJ vs America RJ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Americano RJ1.38

America RJ1

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Americano RJ Draw America RJ

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Americano RJ 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDWDD

America RJ 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Americano RJ 2–3–1 America RJ (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Americano RJ 1585 · America RJ 1460

	Americano RJ	Draw	America RJ
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	44%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Americano RJ (rating 1585 vs 1460).
H2H favours Americano RJ: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Americano RJ	America RJ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.33 ★
X	2.88 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90
2	3.10 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +1’	2.25	2.88	3.10
23:54 +17’	2.05▼	2.90▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +1’	2.40	2.67	3.19
23:09	2.39▼	2.69▲	3.18▼
00:11	2.33▼	2.69	3.28▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Americano RJ 2–3–1 America RJ

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	America RJ	0-0 HT 0-0	Americano RJ
29/04/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	America RJ	0-2 HT 0-0	Americano RJ
12/07/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	America RJ	1-0 HT 1-0	Americano RJ
31/07/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	Americano RJ	0-0 HT 0-0	America RJ
10/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	America RJ	0-2 HT 0-2	Americano RJ
14/05/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	America RJ	1-1 HT 0-0	Americano RJ

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Americano RJ	11	8	1	2	18	9	25
2	Marica RJ	11	7	3	1	11	7	24
3	Resende RJ	11	5	4	2	16	9	19
4	America RJ	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
5	Perolas Negras	11	5	1	5	11	15	16
6	Sao Goncalo	11	4	2	5	11	10	14
7	Bonsucesso FC	11	4	2	5	10	11	14
8	Olaria AC	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
9	Cabofriense	11	3	3	5	12	13	12
10	Araruama FC	11	3	2	6	11	15	11
11	Serrano	11	2	5	4	10	18	11
12	Audax Rio	11	3	0	8	10	17	9

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Americano RJ	America RJ
Cabofriense	2-1 W	2-1 W
Serrano	2-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: America RJ (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Americano RJ

WWWDWWDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Copa Rio	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/07	America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
04/07	Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
27/06	Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
23/06	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
20/06	Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
17/06	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Copa Rio	0-0	0-0	14	2	D
14/06	Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
06/06	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	2-0	3-1	6	9	W
30/05	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-1	2-1	5	3	W

America RJ

WWDDLLLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Nova Iguacu Brazil Copa Rio	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
11/07	Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
04/07	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/07	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
27/06	XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
24/06	Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
20/06	XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
13/06	Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
10/06	Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
06/06	EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Americano RJ vs America RJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Americano RJ win (44%). Probabilities: Americano RJ 44%, draw 30%, America RJ 26%.

How many goals are expected in Americano RJ vs America RJ?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Americano RJ 1.38 · America RJ 1), with a 59% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Americano RJ vs America RJ?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.