Football · South Korea Cup · 15/07, 12:00
Prediction: Busan Trans Corp vs Suwon Bluewings
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Busan Trans Corp1.09
Suwon Bluewings1.68
1X2
Busan Trans Corp
Draw
Suwon Bluewings
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Busan Trans Corp
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Suwon Bluewings
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Busan Trans Corp 1569 · Suwon Bluewings 1521
| Busan Trans Corp | Draw | Suwon Bluewings | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Busan Trans Corp (rating 1569 vs 1521).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Busan Trans Corp | Suwon Bluewings | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 3 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Busan Trans Corp
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 05/07 | Gijang United South Korea Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Yeoju South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Gijang United South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
Suwon Bluewings
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Ansan Greeners FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 16 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Seongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Hwaseong FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Chungnam Asan FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Cheonan City South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Daegu FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Suwon FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Busan I Park South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Gyeongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Gimpo FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Busan Trans Corp vs Suwon Bluewings?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Suwon Bluewings win (51%). Probabilities: Busan Trans Corp 25%, draw 24%, Suwon Bluewings 51%.
How many goals are expected in Busan Trans Corp vs Suwon Bluewings?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Busan Trans Corp 1.09 · Suwon Bluewings 1.68), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Busan Trans Corp vs Suwon Bluewings?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.