Football · South Korea Cup · 15/07, 12:00
Prediction: Changwon City vs Gimhae FC 2008
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Changwon City1.11
Gimhae FC 20081.57
1X2
Changwon City
Draw
Gimhae FC 2008
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Changwon City
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Gimhae FC 2008
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Changwon City
1–1–4
Gimhae FC 2008
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Changwon City 1532 · Gimhae FC 2008 1464
| Changwon City | Draw | Gimhae FC 2008 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Changwon City (rating 1532 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Gimhae FC 2008: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Changwon City | Gimhae FC 2008 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.5 | 1 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Changwon City 1–1–4 Gimhae FC 2008
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/25 South Korea K3 League | Gimhae FC 2008 | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Changwon City |
| 10/05/25 South Korea K3 League | Changwon City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Gimhae FC 2008 |
| 29/06/24 South Korea K3 League | Changwon City | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Gimhae FC 2008 |
| 03/03/24 South Korea K3 League | Gimhae FC 2008 | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Changwon City |
| 15/09/23 South Korea K3 League | Changwon City | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Gimhae FC 2008 |
| 21/05/23 South Korea K3 League | Gimhae FC 2008 | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Changwon City |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Changwon City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Geumsan Insam South Korea Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
Gimhae FC 2008
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Cheonan City South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Seoul E-Land FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Seongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Gimpo FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Jeonnam Dragons South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Daegu FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Gyeongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Busan I Park South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Yongin FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Chungbuk Cheongju South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Changwon City vs Gimhae FC 2008?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gimhae FC 2008 win (47%). Probabilities: Changwon City 26%, draw 28%, Gimhae FC 2008 47%.
How many goals are expected in Changwon City vs Gimhae FC 2008?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Changwon City 1.11 · Gimhae FC 2008 1.57), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Changwon City vs Gimhae FC 2008?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.