Football · South Korea Cup · 15/07, 12:00
Prediction: Busan I Park vs Geoje Citizen FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.7Total
Busan I Park2.85
Geoje Citizen FC0.85
1X2
Busan I Park
Draw
Geoje Citizen FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Busan I Park
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Geoje Citizen FC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Busan I Park 1539 · Geoje Citizen FC 1535
| Busan I Park | Draw | Geoje Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 82% | 12% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Busan I Park | Geoje Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Busan I Park
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Gimpo FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Jeonnam Dragons South Korea K League 2 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 05/06 | Chungnam Asan FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Paju Frontier FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Hwaseong FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Cheonan City South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Suwon Bluewings South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Suwon FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Yongin FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Geoje Citizen FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Incheon Seogot SM FC South Korea Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Sejong SA South Korea K4 League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | Jecheon Citizen South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Gijang United South Korea K4 League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 10 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Busan I Park vs Geoje Citizen FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Busan I Park win (80%). Probabilities: Busan I Park 80%, draw 13%, Geoje Citizen FC 7%.
How many goals are expected in Busan I Park vs Geoje Citizen FC?
The model expects 3.7 goals (Busan I Park 2.85 · Geoje Citizen FC 0.85), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Busan I Park vs Geoje Citizen FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.